000 AXNT20 KNHC 080354 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Apr 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to move offshore of the SE U.S. and NE Florida early on Sun and progress SE, reaching from near Bermuda to central Florida Sun evening, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Mon evening. A large area of strong to gale-force N to NE winds, and significant seas will build behind the front by Sun evening, spreading across the waters N of 26N and W of 65W by Tue. OPC has issued a storm force wind warning for conditions north of 31N during this event. Seas are currently expected to reach 20 ft near 31N75W Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 02N30W to 02S43W. Associated convection is isolated and weak. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A pair of stationary fronts extend from a 1014 mb low pressure in the NW Gulf of Mexico near 26N96W. The first extends towards New Orleans, Louisiana and is supporting scattered thunderstorms east of the front, from 26N to 29N between 91W and 95W. The second stationary boundary extends south towards Veracruz, Mexico with limited convection. Winds are fresh to strong from the NE to N between these fronts and the Texas and Mexican coasts. A surface trough is analyzed along the Yucatan Peninsula, where winds are fresh to strong. Fresh easterly winds are noted in the Straits of Florida. Winds are gentle to moderate elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the western Gulf, 3 to 5 ft in the central Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, the front will move slowly eastward over the western half of the Gulf through Sun. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected to the W of the low and front through tonight, except persisting off Veracruz through Sat evening. Another low pressure, expected to develop just off the SE of United States Sat night, will allow a cold front to move southward over Florida and the NE Gulf on Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds are expected behind the front in the N-central and NE Gulf. Low pressure may develop along the remnants of the front in the N central Gulf Tue and deepen through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Showers and thunderstorms extend south from Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands to 15N. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the general pattern of strong trade winds in the eastern Caribbean, fresh trades in the central Caribbean, and moderate trades in the NW Caribbean. A few local exceptions are in the Windward Passage, Lee of Cuba, Gulf of Honduras and off the coast of Colombia, where winds are fresh to strong. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 5 to 7 ft in the central Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a broad inverted trough from just NW of the Mona Passage to across the eastern Dominican Republic to near 16N69W is accompanied by active weather. Fresh to strong winds in the S-central will diminish tonight. Similar winds in the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic supported by the trough and high pressure N of the area will linger through Sat morning before diminishing as the trough shifts W and weakens. Weak high pressure will prevail N of the for the end of the weekend through next Wed ahead of a strong cold front well to the N. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the SW Atlantic. A broad surface trough extends from the Dominican Republic near 20N71W to 31N65W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted east of the trough from 19N to 27N between 63W and 70W. West of the trough axis, winds are moderate from the E. East of the trough axis, winds are fresh from the SE. Seas are generally in the 6 to 8 ft range in the western subtropical Atlantic, except for 4 to 6 ft west of 75W. In the central Atlantic, a relatively strong pressure gradient is supporting enhanced easterly trades winds south of 20N between 50W and 65W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in this area. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh N to NE winds dominate with 6 to 8 ft seas. For the forecast, a broad inverted trough accompanied by very active weather from near 31N64W to 19N69W will shift W and weaken through Sun, reaching the central Bahamas. Atlantic high pressure is draped across the waters N of the trough, along 32N, and is producing fresh to strong winds and seas to 10 ft E of the trough. Winds and seas across the region will gradually diminish tonight through Sun as high pressure also weakens. A strong cold front is expected to move offshore of the SE U.S. and NE Florida early on Sun, bringing gale force winds and high seas. The front may stall along 25N/26N by the middle of next week while conditions gradually improve. $$ Flynn