000 AXNT20 KNHC 072259 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Apr 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2255 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to move offshore of the SE U.S. and NE Florida early on Sun and sink SE across NW portions, reaching from near Bermuda to central Florida Sun evening, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Mon evening. A large area of strong to minimal gale-force N to NE winds, and significant NE swell will build into the area behind the front, spreading across the waters N of 26N and W of 65W by Tue. Seas will peak near 21 ft Sun night near 31N75W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 01N30W to 01S43W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near the monsoon trough and ITCZ east of 28W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from a 1019 mb low pressure in the southern Louisiana coast to a 1016 mb low pressure near 26N97W and continues southward to coast of Veracruz near 18N95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N and between 90W and 95W. A 1027 mb high pressure system east of Bermuda extends southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are seen west of the frontal boundary. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are present in the Florida Straits and off northern Yucatan, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, a weak cold front lingers across the N and W Gulf, extending from the Florida Panhandle, across SE Louisiana, to weak low pressure just offshore of Brownsville, TX then extends southward to just S of Veracruz, Mexico. The front will move slowly eastward over the western half of the Gulf trough Sun. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected to the W of the low and front through tonight, except persisting off Veracruz through Sat. Another low pressure, expected to develop just off the SE of United States Sat night, will allow a cold front to move southward over Florida and the NE Gulf on Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds are expected behind the front in the NE Gulf. Low pres may develop along the remnants of the front in the N central Gulf Tue and deepen through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers are seen in the SW Caribbean Sea and also in the waters south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. No deep convection is noted elsewhere in the basin. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are evident in the south-central and SE Caribbean, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Fresh NE-E winds are also found in the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. In the rest of the Caribbean, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a broad inverted trough extends from the Atlantic near 29N64W across the eastern Dominican Republic to near 17N69W, and is accompanied by active weather. Atlantic high pressure is drapped to the N of the trough along 31N-32N. Fresh to strong trade winds are found across the far NE and SE Caribbean to the E of the trough, and will become mainly strong tonight through Sat morning before diminishing. Winds and seas will gradually diminish elsewhere through Sun as the trough shifts W and weakens, and reaches the central Bahamas. Weak high pressure will prevail N of the area Mon through Wed as a strong cold front moves across much of Florida and the regional Atlantic N of 26N. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the SW Atlantic. A broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the waters between Bermuda and the eastern Greater Antilles. A surface trough extends from 31N63W to eastern Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 26N and between 60W and 70W. The pressure gradient between the trough, the deep tropics and a 1027 mb high pressure system near 33N55W support fresh to strong easterly winds south of 27N and between 42W and 66W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Farther north, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are found north of 28N and between 30W and 45W. Wave heights in the area described are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a broad inverted trough accompanied by very active weather extends from near 29N64W to 22N67W then across the eastern Dominican Republic and into the N Caribbean. The trough will shift W and weaken through Sun, reaching the central Bahamas. Atlantic high pressure is drapped across the N of the trough, along 31N-32N, and is producing a strong winds and seas to 10 ft E of the trough. Winds and seas across the region will gradually diminish tonight through Sun as high pressure also weakens. $$ DELGADO