000 AXNT20 KNHC 070739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Apr 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0710 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the equator to 08N between 13W and 32W, and from 01S to 03S between 40W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak 1015 mb low pressure is centered over the NW Gulf near 27N96W, with a stationary boundary extending NE to near Lake Charles, Louisiana and a cold front extending south to Veracruz, Mexico. Numerous thunderstorms are observed NW of these boundaries in the coastal waters of Louisiana, Texas, and Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds and 6-8 ft seas are found west of the cold front, with fresh to strong NE winds and 4-6 ft seas north of the stationary boundary. A surface trough NW of the Yucatan Peninsula supports fresh to strong winds and 5-7 ft seas in the area. Easterly winds are fresh in the Florida Straits, building 4-6 ft seas. Winds are gentle to moderate elsewhere with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are forecast to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche this evening. A weak low pressure over the NW Gulf and an attendant front extending from the low center NE to near Lake Charles, Louisiana and SSW to Veracruz, Mexico will move slowly eastward over the western half of the Gulf trough Sun. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the low and front through today, except off Veracruz through Sat. Another low pressure, forecast to develop just off the SE of United States will allow a cold front to move southward over Florida and the NE Gulf on Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds are expected behind the front in the NE Gulf. Low pres may develop along the remnants of the front in the N-central Gulf Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds through the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, over the Gulf of Honduras, in the lee of eastern Cuba, and over the south central Caribbean. Otherwise, easterly trade winds are fresh over the eastern Caribbean and moderate over the remainder of the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, 6-8 ft from the lee of the Windward Passage to NE Jamaica and mainly 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge extending across the western Atlantic and low pres over northern Colombia will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through this morning. Fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Honduras, and in the lee of eastern Cuba will also diminish by this afternoon. Expect increasing winds and building seas across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles tonight through Sat as a broad inverted trough moves westward across the Atlantic just north of the islands. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 30N61W to 20N65W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 20N to 27N between 58W and 70W. An overnight scatterometer pass found fresh to strong E winds on either side of the trough where seas are 6-8 ft. Otherwise, a tighter than usual pressure gradient is supporting fresh to strong trades south of 26N and west of 40W with 7-9 ft seas. NE winds are moderate to fresh elsewhere, with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, a broad inverted trough, with axis currently between 62W-65W, will shift westward through Sun, reaching the southeastern Bahamas. This feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas through tonight as it interacts with high pressure north of the area. A low pres center is forecast to develop along a frontal boundary just offshore NE Florida early on Sun. The low will drag a cold front to move southward across Florida and the western Atlantic. This system will bring strong to minimal gale-force northerly winds, and a significant swell event mainly across the waters N of 26N and W of 65W Sun night into early next week. $$ Lewitsky