696 
AXNT20 KNHC 070353
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
0605 UTC Fri Apr 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0350 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W 
to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 02S41W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from the equator to 08N between 
13W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak low pressure is centered over the NW Gulf, with a 
stationary boundary extending NE to near Lake Charles, Louisiana 
and a cold front extending south to near Tuxpan, Mexico. 
Numerous thunderstorms are observed NW of these boundaries in 
the coastal waters of Louisiana, Texas, and Mexico. Fresh to 
strong N winds and 6-8 ft seas are found west of the cold front, 
with fresh NE winds and 4-6 ft seas north of the stationary 
boundary. A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula 
and is supporting fresh to strong winds and 5-7 ft seas in the 
area.  Easterly winds are fresh in the Florida Straits, building 
4-6 ft seas. Winds are gentle to moderate elsewhere with 3-5 ft 
seas.

For the forecast, the weak low pressure over the NW Gulf and an 
attendant fronts will move slowly eastward over the western half 
of the Gulf trough Sun. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds 
are expected in the wake of the low and front through at least 
Fri. Another low pressure, forecast to develop just off the SE 
of United States will allow a cold front to move southward over 
Florida and the NE Gulf on Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds 
are expected behind the front in the NE Gulf. Fresh to strong 
winds are forecast to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula 
into the Bay of Campeche this evening into early Fri morning, 
and again Fri evening.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower 
pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong NE 
to E winds through the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, 
over the Gulf of Honduras, and over the south central Caribbean. 
Otherwise, easterly trade winds are fresh over the eastern 
Caribbean and moderate over the remainder of the NW Caribbean. 
Seas are in the 7-9 ft range in the central Caribbean, 6-8 ft 
from the lee of the Windward Passage to NE Jamaica and 4-6 ft 
elsewhere. A few thunderstorms are noted in the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge 
extending across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will 
support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean 
through tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage, 
in the Gulf of Honduras, and in the lee of eastern Cuba will 
diminish Fri. Expect increasing winds and building seas across 
the waters E of the Lesser Antilles tonight through Sat as a 
broad inverted trough moves westward across the Atlantic just 
north of the islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 29N61W to 22N63W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 18N to 27N between 56W and 
70W. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong E winds 
on either side of the trough where seas are 6-8 ft. Otherwise, a 
tighter than usual pressure gradient is supporting fresh to 
strong trades south of 25N and west of 45W with 7-9 ft seas. NE 
winds are moderate to fresh elsewhere, with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, a high pressure ridge across the 
western Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong winds 
between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos Islands tonight. A broad 
inverted trough, with axis currently near 63W, will shift 
westward through Sun, reaching the southeastern Bahamas. This 
feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas through 
the end of the week as it interacts with high pressure north of 
the area. A low pressure center is forecast to develop along a 
frontal boundary just offshore NE Florida early on Sun. The low 
will move NE allowing a cold front to move southward across 
Florida and the western Atlantic. This system will bring strong 
to minimal gale-force northerly winds and a significant swell 
event mainly across the waters N of 27N and W of 65W Sun night 
into early next week.

$$ 
Flynn