236 AXNT20 KNHC 061041 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Apr 06 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support northeast to east near-gale to gale-force winds within 90 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia until about 12Z this morning. Seas will be in the 9-12 ft range with the gale-force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Senegal- Gambia border and curves southwestward to 10N21W. Increasing numerous scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the trough from the Equator to 07N between 18W-20W, and from 04N to 08N between 20W-29W. There is no ITCZ present north of the Equator based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A slow-moving cold front extends from near the Texas-Louisiana border to near the Texas-Mexico border then continues as a warm front to a 1007 mb low over northeastern Mexico. Patchy showers are occurring along and up to 50 nm northwest of this boundary. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and seas of 5-8 ft per latest altimeter data are over the southern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds with 5-7 ft seas are over the western, north-central and southeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and seas of 3-5 ft are over the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front over the western Gulf extends from southwestern Louisiana to inland extreme northeastern Mexico. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are behind the front. The front will stall this morning and linger over the NW Gulf through Fri night. Winds behind the front will increase to fresh to strong over some of the waters. Weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary over the NW Gulf on Fri and gradually shift east-northeastward. Northerly flow behind the low will push the front east-southeastward across the northern and central Gulf through late Sat. The front is expected to stall over the southeast and south-central Gulf Sun and into next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected with the front. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche this morning and again tonight into early Fri morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on a soon to end Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. A surface trough induced by a low-level disturbance is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic and near Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Otherwise, a relatively fair trade- wind pattern continues elsewhere in the basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong northeast to east wind and seas of 8-10 ft are over the south-central part of the basin. Strong to near-gale force east to southeast winds along with seas of 7-9 ft seas are over the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds are over the central and eastern sections of the sea, while fresh to strong east to southeast winds are over the western half of the basin. Seas of 5-7 ft are over the north-central and western sections of the basin. Mostly moderate northeast to eats winds and seas of 4-6 ft seas are over the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge extending across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Thu night. Minimal gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia will diminish to just below gale-force early this morning. Fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish Fri. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse tonight in the lee of Cuba. Expect increasing winds and building seas across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles beginning Thu night as a broad inverted trough moves westward across the Atlantic just north of the islands. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Supported by a rather vigorous upper-level low near 27N64W, a broad inverted trough along a position from 30N55W to 21N56W is triggering scattered moderate convection from 21N to 30N between the trough and 59W. Convergent trade winds are generating similar convection from the Equator to 06N between 29W-36W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A 1029 mb Bermuda High is maintaining gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 23N between 55W and the Florida-Georgia coast. To the east, moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds along with seas of 7-10 ft due to a northeast to east swell are north of 10N between the African coast and 60W, including the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. Farther to the southwest, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of 5-7 ft exist from the Equator to 23N and between 55W and the southeastern Bahamas and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds along with seas of 4-7 ft seas due to a moderate north swell remain elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, a high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong winds between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos Islands through this evening. A broad inverted trough, with axis currently near 56W, will shift westward through Sat reaching the southeastern Bahamas. This feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas through the end of the week as it interacts with high pressure north of the area. A cold front will move to just offshore NE Florida on Sat, bringing strong to near gale- force northerly winds and a significant swell event from Sun night into Mon. $$ Aguirre