000 AXNT20 KNHC 060603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Apr 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support NE to ENE near-gale to gale winds overnight tonight within 90 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia. Seas will peak at 10 to 11 ft in the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Senegal-Gambia border and curves southwestward to 10N21W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of the trough from the Equator to 07N between 11W and 25W. There is no ITCZ present north of the Equator based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A slow-moving cold front extends from near the Texas-Louisiana border to near the Texas-Mexico border then continues as a warm front to a 1007 mb low over northeastern Mexico. Patchy showers are occurring along and up to 50 nm northwest of this boundary. Fresh to strong ESE to SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft seas are present at the south Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are found across the western, north-central and southeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche through Thu. Fresh to locally strong winds are briefly expected in the wake of the frontal boundary tonight. The front will stall by early Thu and linger over the northwestern Gulf through Fri night. Weak low pressure currently over northeastern Mexico is forecast to gradually shift east-northeastward. Northerly flow behind the low will push the front east-southeastward across the northern and central Gulf through late Sat. The front is expected to stall over the southeastern and south-central Gulf Sun and early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected with the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on an ongoing Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. A trade-wind disturbance is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic and near Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Otherwise, a relatively fair trade-wind pattern continues elsewhere in the basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Strong to near-gale ESE winds with 7 to 9 ft seas are found at the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft dominate the north- central and western basin. Mostly moderate ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge extending across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through Thu night. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba through Fri. Expect increasing winds and seas across the waters east of the Lesser Antilles beginning Thu night as an inverted trough moves westward across the Atlantic just north of the islands. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Enhanced by an upper-level low near 27N64W, a broad inverted trough is triggering scattered moderate convection from 21N to 29N between 59W. Convergent trade winds are generating similar convection from the Equator to 06N between 23W and 36W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A 1031 mb Bermuda High is maintaining gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 23N between 55W and the Florida-Georgia coast. To the east, moderate to fresh NNE to E trades with 7 to 10 ft seas in NE to E swell are present north of 10N between the African coast and 60W, including the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. Farther southwest, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist from the Equator to 23N/10N between 55W and the southeast Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate N swell prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, a ridge across the northwestern Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong winds between Hispaniola and Turks/Caicos Islands through Thu evening. A broad inverted trough, with axis currently near 55W, will shift westward through Sat reaching the southeastern Bahamas. This feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas through the end of the week. A cold front will move to just offshore of northeast Florida on Sat, bringing strong to near gale-force northerly winds and significant swell from Sun night into Mon. $$ Forecaster Chan