000 AXNT20 KNHC 051019 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Apr 05 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support NE to ENE near-gale to gale winds tonight within 90 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia. Seas will reach a range of 9-12 ft in the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the Guinea- Bissau coast near Bissau and extends southwestward across 05N22W to the Equator at 28W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 03N to 07N between 10W-19W. There is no ITCZ present north of the Equator based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and waters off northern Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche through Thu. Fresh to strong return flow will prevail across the western Gulf waters today in advance of the next cold front. The front is expected to move into the far NW Gulf this afternoon and stall, where it will meander through Fri. The front will then weaken and dissipate by Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on an ongoing Gale Warning. An Atlantic ridge extending southwestward from a 1031 mb Azores High continues to support a relatively fair trade wind regime across the entire basin. Patchy trade-wind showers are seen near the Leeward Islands. Outside the Gale Warning area described above, strong to near-gale NE to ENE winds and seas of 8-11 ft are over the south-central section of the basin. Strong to near-gale ESE winds along with seas of 6-8 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate east to east-southeast winds and seas of 3-4 ft are over the northwestern part of the basin, namely over the waters between Cuba and near Jamaica. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and seas of 4-6 ft seas remain for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba through Fri. Moderate to fresh trade winds will continue over the eastern Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough that is present just east of Bermuda is analyzed north of the area from 33N63W southwestward to near 25N67W. Meanwhile, a rather robust upper-level trough is in its vicinity. The combination of these two features earlier resulted in an area of numerous showers and thunderstorms from about 22N to 29N and between 60W-69W. This activity, for the most part, has diminished during the past few hours. Convergent trade winds are producing mostly isolated moderate convection from the Equator to 03N between 33W and the coast of Amapa State, Brazil. The exception is a cluster of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection that is within 60 nm of 01N48W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Another trough is analyzed east to the east-northeast of the Leeward Islands from 22N59W to 16N58W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms exist within 120 nm either side of this trough from 18N to 20N. Yet another trough is over the central Atlantic along 49W from 20N to 27N. Satellite imagery shows no convection occurring with this trough as it is moving through a rather stable surrounding environment. Gentle to moderate to fresh east to southeast winds along with seas of 4-7 ft are present north of 19N and between 55W and the Georgia/Florida coast. Moderate to fresh northeast to east trade winds and seas of 7-10 ft due to a decaying northerly swell are north of 19N and between 35W-55W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong north to northeast trades and seas of 9-11 ft due to a large northerly swell are located north of 18N between the African coast and 35W. To the south, moderate to locally fresh northeast to east trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft are from 03N to 18N/19N and between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure over the area continues to support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N and to the east of the approaches to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong winds will continue between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through Thu evening. A broad inverted trough is expected to develop near 55W tonight and shift westward through Fri. This feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas through the end of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this trough. $$ Aguirre