000 AXNT20 KNHC 041049 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Apr 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over northern Colombia is supporting NE to ENE near-gale to gale winds at night within 90 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia through tonight. Sea heights will peak at 10 to 12 ft under the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwestward across the African coast near the Liberia-Sierra Leone border to 04N20W to 02N26W. The ITCZ begins near 02N26W and continues to 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 07N between 10W and 36W, and from 05S to 04N W of 36W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong return flow and seas in the 5 to 6 ft range dominate the western half of the basin where low pressure continues to build ahead of the next frontal boundary to enter the gulf. The eastern half of the basin is under the influence of the N Atlantic surface ridge, which is supporting mainly gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft per recent altimeter data. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche through Thu. Fresh to strong return flow will prevail across the W half of the Gulf through Wed, ahead of the next cold front. The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed afternoon and stall across NW and W portions, where it will meander through Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a Gale Warning. The subtropical Atlantic ridges extends southward into the northern half of the Caribbean, which against lower pressure over NW Colombia continue to generate a pressure gradient leading to the continuation of fresh to near gale-force E to NE winds across the central and portions of the SW basin. Seas in these regions are in the 7 to 12 ft range. The surface ridge is also supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between surface ridging associated with two centers of high pressure in the north Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force through early this morning and again tonight. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba today through Fri. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about declining northerly swell at the central Atlantic. Surface ridging associated with two centers of high pressure in the north Atlantic covers the subtropical Atlantic waters, including the Bahamas and continues to support moderate to fresh trade winds S of 22N to the east of the approaches to the Windward Passage. Winds and seas to 9 ft in this region will diminish late today. A weakening stationary front extends from 31N61W to 26N72W to NE Florida. Scattered showers associated with this front are N of 27N and W of 65W. Surface ridging dominate the remainder central and eastern subtropical waters where also a weakening cold front extends from 30N13W to 28N29W where it transitions to a dissipating stationary front. Residual swell associated with the passage of this front covers the waters N of 20N between 13W and 33W where recent altimeter reveals seas of 8 to 11 ft. In this same region, fresh to strong NE winds prevail between the Canary Islands and NW Africa. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate today. Fresh to strong winds will continue between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through Thu evening. Looking ahead, a broad inverted trough is expected to develop along about 55W Wed night and shift W through Fri. This feature will enhance winds and seas E of the Bahamas through the end of the week. $$ Ramos