000 AXNT20 KNHC 040604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Apr 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure over northern Colombia is supporting NE to ENE near-gale to gale winds at night within 90 nm of the coastal city of Barranquilla, Colombia through Tue night. Sea heights will peak at 10 to 12 ft under the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details. Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Northerly swell has decayed enough to allow combined seas to drop below 12 ft across the central Atlantic. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for combined seas of 8 to 11 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends southwestward across the African coast near the Liberia-Sierra Leone border through 07N20W to the Equator at 31W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the Equator to 08N between 10W and 30W. No ITCZ is present north of the Equator based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extending west-southwestward from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico dominates much of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are noted across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong ENE to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are present off the coast of northern Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche through Thu. Strengthening surface ridge will cause fresh with widespread strong return flow to develop across the western Gulf later tonight through Wed, ahead of the next cold front. The front is expected to move into the northwestern Gulf Wed afternoon and stall off the Texas and northern Mexico coast through Thu. It should gradually move eastward and weaken toward the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a Gale Warning. The Atlantic ridge to the north continues to sustain a relatively fair trade-wind regime across much of the basin, except near southern Hispaniola which scattered trade-wind showers are occurring. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong ESE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle easterly winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are seen at the northwestern basin south of Cuba and near Jamaica. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge associated with the Azores High and low pressure over northern Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force winds at the south-central basin through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba Tue through Fri. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about declining northerly swell at the central Atlantic. A modest stationary front reaches southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N59W to 27N72W, then turns northwestward through northern Florida. Convergent southerly winds southeast of this front are causing scattered moderate convection from 25N to 28N between 57W and 65W. A cold front stretches westward from northeast of the Canary Islands across 31N15W to 29N29W, then continues as a stationary front to 29N41W. Patchy clouds and showers are evident up to 50 nm along either side of this boundary. Convergent trade winds are producing scattered moderate convection from the Equator to 04N between 33W and the Brazilian coast near Belem. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Residual northerly swell is generating seas of 7 to 10 ft from 13N to 25N between 48W and 59W, and 8 to 11 ft from 16N to 31N between 32W and 48W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trades are present in this area. Farther west near the stationary front, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist north of 19N west of 59W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and seas of 8 to 13 ft in large NW swell dominate north of 18N between the African coast and 32W. To the southwest, gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are found from 02N to 19N/13N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere for the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1033 mb Azores High to the Bahamas. This feature will continue to support moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of 22N between 54W and the approaches to the Windward Passage. Winds and seas near 9 ft in this region will diminish late Tue as the Atlantic ridge shifts northward. The stationary front will weaken further through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds will prevail in the northeast Florida offshore waters north of the front through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks/Caicos through Thu evening. Looking ahead, a broad inverted trough is expected to develop along 55W Wed night and then shift westward through Fri. This feature will enhance winds and seas east of the Bahamas through the end of the week. $$ Forecaster Chan