000 AXNT20 KNHC 031043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Apr 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between surface ridging north of the Caribbean Sea and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night, except for gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas are expected to peak at 12 to 13 ft within the area of the strongest winds tonight and peak to 11 ft the remainder forecast period. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Former cold front has stalled along 31N21W to 25N33W to 22N41W where it starts to dissipate. Large swell prevails in the wake of the front with seas of 12-15 ft in long period NW swell currently covering roughly the waters N of 22N between 28W and 40W. This swell event, with a leading edge period of 11-15 seconds, will continue to spread southeastward across the waters E of 60W today. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft over the NE corner of the forecast area by Tue evening. At this time, seas of 8 to 11 ft will dominate most of the waters N of 13N and E of 55W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 08N13W and continues to 04N25W to 01N35W. The ITCZ extends from 01N35W to 01S45W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed within 180 nm either side of the monsoon/ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extending from strong high pressure centered SW of the Azores Islands reaches the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico while lower pressure starts to develop across the western half of the basin ahead of an approaching front. This set up is supporting moderate to fresh return flow W of 86W and seas of 3 to 5 ft per recent altimeter data. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula through Fri. High pressure and fresh to locally strong return flow will prevail across most of the W half of the Gulf tonight through early Wed, ahead of the next cold front. The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed and stall across NW and W portions, where it will meander through Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between a ridge to the north and lower pressures in NW Colombia results in fresh to near gale-force easterly winds in the central, and great portions of the SW Caribbean. The wave heights are 8-12 ft in the south-central, and SW Caribbean. Winds elsewhere are moderate to fresh with seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between surface ridging associated with strong high pressure centered SW of the Azores Islands, and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to near gale-force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Thu night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through Fri morning. Seas to 10 ft in mixed N and E swell across the Tropical North Atlantic waters will gradually subside today through Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E Caribbean through the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about a Significant Swell Event at the central and eastern Atlantic. High pressure centered SW of the Azores Islands extends W-SW to the Bahamas and continues to support moderate to fresh E to SE winds S of 22N to the east of the approaches to the Windward Passage. A cold front extends from 31N64W to 28N73W. For the forecast W of 55W, winds and seas to 10 ft E of the Windward Passage and S of 22N will diminish late Tue as Atlantic high pressure reorganizes N of the area. The cold front over the SW N Atlantic waters will move SE and weaken through late Tue. Moderate to locally fresh winds across the waters N of 29N in advance and in the wake of this front will lift N of the area today. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through Thu evening. Looking ahead, a broad inverted trough is expected to develop along about 55W Wed night and shift W through Fri. $$ Ramos