000 AXNT20 KNHC 012319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Apr 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1028 mb centered just E of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to near gale force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through mid-week. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night through Mon night. Seas are expected to peak at 11 to 13 ft each night under the strongest winds. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N36W to 22N52W where it becomes stationary to near 23N70W. A swell event follows this front, with seas of 12 to 15 ft in long period NW swell currently covering the waters N of 30N between 42W and 56W. This swell event, with a leading edge period of 14 to 16 seconds, will continue to spread southward tonight and Sun. By Sun morning, seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected to dominate the waters N of a line from 29N35W to 25N46W to 31N45W. Seas will subside below 12 ft across the NE corner of the forecast area late on Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Convection is limited. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure centered just E of Bermuda extends a ridge west southwestward to the central Gulf. A 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed within the ridge just W of SW Florida near 26N83W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted over the Gulf waters with seas generally in the 3 to 5 ft range. A cold front is approaching the NW Gulf with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed ahead of the front over parts of southern Georgia to SE Louisiana. This convective activity is also affecting the Florida Panhandle. For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a cold front that will sink slowly into the N Gulf this evening and dissipate across the eastern Gulf on Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off the Yucatan Peninsula through the forecast period. High pressure and fresh to locally strong return flow will prevail across most of the W half of the Gulf Mon night through Tue night, ahead of the next cold front forecast to move into the NW Gulf Wed and stall across NW and W portions through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. The most recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, particularly south of Jamaica. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds winds are seen across the regional waters of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over the south-central Caribbean, with seas of 6 to 8 ft dominating most of the waters S of 18N and E of 82W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted over the NW part of the basin. Multilayer clouds, with embedded showers, are affecting the Windward Islands. This is associated with a upper-level trough that extends from the Anegada Passage to NW Venezuela. Elsewhere, low-topped trade wind showers are noted. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered just NE of Bermuda and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to near gale force winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through mid-week. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night through Mon night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras through the forecast period. Seas will build to near 10 ft in mixed N and E swell across the Tropical North Atlantic tonight through Sun night then gradually subside through Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about a Significant Swell Event at the central and eastern Atlantic. As previously mentioned, a cold front extends from 31N36W to 22N52W where it becomes stationary to near 23N70W. A significant swell event follows this front. A well defined band of mainly low clouds with possible showers is related to the front. High pressure of 1028 mb located E of Bermuda near 31N57W is in the wake of the front and dominates the western Atlantic, including Florida and the Bahamas. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are W of 60W and E of the Bahamas. Based on scatterometer data, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are behind the front to about 25N between 50W and 70W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted across the tropical Atlantic between 40W and the Lesser Antilles with seas of 5 to 7 ft. A ridge dominates the eastern Atlantic, including the Madeira and Canary Islands, with a 1029 mb high pressure located N of the Madeira Islands near 36N16W. An area of 8 to 10 ft seas is near the southern coast of Morocco. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail across most the waters N of the Cabo Verde Islands and E of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate tonight. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will continue to produce fresh to locally strong NE to E winds north of the front and east of the central and southern Bahamas through tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds prevail offshore northeastern Florida in advance of the next cold front that will move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. tonight. This cold front will move southeast, become stationary from near 31N61W to the NW Bahamas by Mon afternoon, then weaken through Tue night. Expect fresh to strong winds ahead of the front N of 29N through Sun evening. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds will continue in the Great Bahama Bank and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos through mid-week. $$ GR