000 AXNT20 KNHC 292330 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Mar 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong NE to E trades over the central Caribbean through the remainder of the week and over the weekend. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale- force late night and early morning starting this evening through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak near 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 05N17W to 00N19W. The ITCZ extends from 00N20W to 04S30W to 02S42W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection and tstms are noted from 01N to 08N between 08W and 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to 25N85W where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to 26N95W and then south to the western Bay of Campeche. Middle to upper level diffluent flow supports scattered showers in the NE Gulf waters where winds are gentle to moderate and from the NNE. Over the NW gulf waters, N of the stationary front, a tighter pressure gradient supports fresh to strong easterlies. Winds in the southern half of the basin and S of the frontal boundary are mainly gentle to locally moderate from the NNE, except for fresh winds along the Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters. For the forecast, the cold front will weaken as it reaches from extreme southern Florida to 25N90W and to the central Bay of Campeche this evening, and dissipate over the far southeastern Gulf Thu. Fresh to strong east winds north of the stationary front will become fresh southeast winds late tonight as the stationary front begins to weakens. These winds will expand eastward through Fri as high pressure builds over the southeastern United States, then weaken over the weekend and re-develop Mon and Mon night. Fresh to locally strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula will change little into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Surface ridging across the central Atlantic extending SW to the northern Caribbean combined with lower pressure over NW Colombia is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades over the eastern, central and SW Caribbean with strong to near gale-force NE winds offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Deep layer dry air continue to hinder the development of deep convection across the region. Recent altimeter data show seas of 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the NW basin. Across the south-central basin or area of strongest winds, seas are in the 7-9 ft range. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the rest of the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force each night through Mon night. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft in the Tropical North Atlantic this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N72W southwestward to the E central Florida peninsula. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N70W to 29N73W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 29N between 67W-77W. NW to N winds poleward of the front are fresh to strong, while winds ahead of the front to the pre-frontal trough are SW fresh to strong. Surface ridging extends from 31N30W to 24N60W to 25N77W. Trades equatorward of the ridge are generally moderate or weaker, though fresh to strong NE winds are present off of NW Africa north of 26N east of 18W. Seas are 8-9 ft in NW swell north of 29N between 25W-45W and north of 17N east of 25W. Elsewhere seas are 6-8 ft east of 60W and 4-6 ft west of 60W. In the forecast, the cold front will slowly move southeastward through Fri, at which time it will reach to along 22N/23N. It will weaken and dissipate Sat. Fresh to strong winds and higher seas are forecast north of 29N in the vicinity of the front today, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the vicinity of the front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong northeast to northeast to east winds across the Bahamas starting Thu night. Winds diminish during Sat as fresh to strong southwest winds develop over the waters offshore northeastern Florida in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to reach from near 31N77W to West Palm Beach, Florida late Sat night and weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W to 27N75W and weakening stationary to South Florida by late Sun. NE swell will build seas to around 8 ft east of the Bahamas by the end of the week. $$ Ramos