000
AXNT20 KNHC 281533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast 
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 
02N20W and to 01N28W where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ 
continues from 01N28W to 01N35W and southwestward to the coast 
of Brazil near 02S45W.

Scattered moderate convection is mainly within 120 nm of the 
ITCZ axis west of 30W. Similar convection is also observed 
within 60 nm of the coast of Brazil from the end of the ITCZ to 
the mouth of the Amazon River. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has entered the NW corner of the basin stretching 
from central LA to near Corpus Christi, TX. Scattered showers 
and thunderstorms with frequent lightning are in the vicinity of 
the front offshore of TX and LA, mainly north of 28N. Fresh to 
strong NE winds are behind the boundary, where seas are 3 to 5 
ft. Elsewhere, a north to south oriented trough extends from the 
south-central Gulf to the southern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to 
strong southeasterly winds are on the east side of the trough, 
shifting to ENE on the west side. Seas are mainly 4 ft in the 
central and southern Gulf. 

High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin allowing for 
moderate winds and seas below 3 ft. Dense fog within 30 nm of 
the northern Gulf Coast states should dissipate throughout the 
morning.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward and 
reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico 
tonight, then weaken from South Florida to near Veracruz, 
Mexico, Wed evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected 
in the northwestern Gulf behind the front today through early Wed.
High pressure will build over the SE United States by the end of 
the week, and will support moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the
basin, with locally fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Winds will weaken slightly for the start of the 
upcoming weekend. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Gale Warning offshore northern Colombia has ended.

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the SW Atlantic 
and low pressure over Colombia supports strong to near- gale 
force winds over the Colombian basin, where seas are 9 to 12 ft 
south of 15N and are mainly between 74W and 80W. Similarly, 
fresh to strong winds are over the Gulf of Honduras, where seas 
are 6 to 9 ft noted in a recent altimeter pass. Fresh trades 
cover the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean basin 
where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are within 
the Windward and Mona Passages, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the NW Basin, moderate to fresh SE winds are noted with 4 to 
6 ft seas, except in the lee of Cuba, where there are moderate 
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will continue 
supporting fresh to strong easterly winds over the central 
Caribbean most of the week. Winds N of Colombia will pulse to 
gale-force each night starting Thu night through Sat night. 
Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras 
through Wed morning, occasionally reaching near-gale force. 
Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the approach to the 
Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds 
will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Fair weather conditions prevail over the western Atlantic for 
the forecast area due to high pressure of 1022 mb, which extends 
a ridge to the northern Bahamas. West of 55W, moderate to fresh 
anticyclonic flow surrounds the high with W winds N of 28N and E 
winds S of 24N with the strongest breezes near the entrance of 
the Windward Passage. These conditions are allowing for 3 to 5 
ft seas, except to the NE of the Lesser Antilles, where 4 to 6 
ft seas are noted.   

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds prevail mainly south of 
25N and west of 35W. The remnants of moderate to rough seas 
continue over the open Atlantic from a dissipating frontal 
boundary. 8 to 10 ft N swell is south of 20N and west of 30W to 
the Lesser Antilles. 9 to 11 ft NW swell continues to propagate 
eastward and is mainly north of 20N and east of 40W at this 
time. 9 ft swells also reached the northern Canary Islands this 
morning.  

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the 
western Atlantic today. A cold front is forecast to move off the 
SE United States coast this afternoon, then slowly track 
southeastward through Fri when it will reach 22N/23N. Fresh to 
strong winds and higher seas are forecast N of 29N in the 
vicinity of the front Wed, with moderate to fresh winds 
elsewhere in the vicinity of the front. High pressure building 
in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, 
generating fresh to strong NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas by 
Thu night. NE swell will build seas to around 8 ft east of the 
Bahamas by the end of the week. 

$$
Mora