000 AXNT20 KNHC 280547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Mar 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The surface pressure gradient, that is between a 1023 mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center that is near 28N66W, and comparatively lower pressure in Colombia, will support strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea in general. Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 9 feet to 11 feet from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. These conditions will last until the sunrise of today. Expect the wind speeds to range from 20 knots to 30 knots, and the sea heights to range from 8 feet to 10 feet, from 10N to 15N between 70W and 81W, in general, until Wednesday night. Atlantic Ocean large swell event: A stationary front is along 31N28W 30N32W 25N40W 23N44W. A surface trough is along 23N44W 22N51W 24N55W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the line 16N60W 20N45W 31N27W. Gentle anticyclonic wind flow is within 300 nm to the south of the front from 30W eastward, and within 180 nm to 240 nm on either side of the front between 30W and 42W. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 28N66W. Gentle anticyclonic winds are from 24N to 29N between 46W and 54W, and from 23N northward between 58W and 70W. The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 14 feet, in general, from 17N northward between 30W and 50W. The comparatively highest sea heights are from 10 feet to 14 feet from 22N northward between 38W and 44W. The sea heights are ranging from 5 feet to 8 feet between 50W and 60W. The forecast for the sea heights, until Wednesday night, is for the range to be from 8 feet to 11 feet from 17N northward between 35W and 53W until Tuesday night. The sea heights will decrease to the range from 8 feet to 9 feet, from Tuesday night until Wednesday night. The sea heights are forecast to be 8 feet, starting on Wednesday night. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 07N18W 01N24W. The ITCZ is disconnected from the monsoon trough. The ITCZ is along 03S25W 03S29W 04S35W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N southward. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Strong SE winds are from 30 nm to 120 nm to the north of the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh SE winds are elsewhere within 300 nm to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the area. A surface ridge extending to the north-central Gulf from the western Atlantic will dominate the area through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula this evening. A cold front entering the northwestern Gulf on Tue will move southeastward and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico Tue night. It will then weaken and reach from the Florida Straits to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected at the northwestern Gulf behind the front Tue through early Wed. High pressure over the SE United States by the end of the week will support moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the basin, and locally fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds will weaken somewhat for the start of the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning in the south central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 7 feet near Jamaica, to 10 feet near 14N80W, leading into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet from 13N to 17N between 68W and 73W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the rest of the eastern one-third of the area. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Strong NE winds are from Jamaica southward between 66W and 83W. Fresh winds are elsewhere from 18N southward. Moderate SE winds are moving from the Windward Passage northwestward. The pressure gradient between high pres N of the area and low pres over Colombia will support fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean most of the week. Winds N of Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight, then again each night Thu night through Sat night. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed morning, occasionally reaching near- gale force. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft in the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES, for details about the large swell event. The main impact will be the high sea heights with the stationary front and the surface trough. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 22N southward between 50W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are from 06N to 20N between 40W and 50W. Fresh NE winds are from 19N to 24N between 30W and 40W, and 06N to 10N between 30W and 35W. Moderate NE winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 70W eastward. Moderate NE winds are from 20N to 24N between 58W and 64W. Strong easterly winds are within 50 nm of the northern coast of Hispaniola between 70W and 73W. Fresh easterly winds are elsewhere from 20N to 23N between 70W and 77W. Moderate easterly winds are from 23N to 25N between 70W and Andros Island in the Bahamas. The sea heights range from: 7 feet to 9 feet from 26N northward between the Canary Islands and 24W; from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 30W eastward; from 7 feet to 8 feet from 10N to 16N between 50W and 60W; from 4 feet to 5 feet between 60W and 70W; from 3 feet to 5 feet from the Bahamas northward from 70W westward; the sea heights are 3 feet or less from the Bahamas southward; from 4 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure will prevail over the western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off the SE United States coast on Tue morning, then slowly track southeastward through Fri when it will reach to along 22N/23N. Fresh to strong winds and higher seas are forecast N of 29N in the vicinity of the front Wed, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the vicinity of the front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong NE to ENE winds across the Bahamas by Thu night. NE swell will build seas to around 8 ft east of the Bahamas by the end of the week. $$ mt/al