000 AXNT20 KNHC 272316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Mar 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian/Panamaniam low will support fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean most of the week. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale- force at night tonight, then again Thu night through Sat night. Seas are expected to peak at 12 to 13 ft with the strongest winds. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Residual NW swell associated with a complex frontal system over the northern Atlantic continues to impact the forecast waters N of 24N E of 40W with combined seas of 10 to 14 ft. As this swell event steadily subside, seas are going to drop below 12 ft late this evening Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues SW to 02N24W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 00N to 03N between 05N and 10W, and from the Equator to 04N between 18W and 21W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest surface analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A pre-frontal trough with some shower activity is analyzed over the NW Gulf while a ridge dominates the remainder of the area. Under this weather pattern, an area of fresh to locally strong SE to S winds are noted per scatterometer data across the central Gulf, particularly S of 26N between 87W and 94W. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within the area of the strongest winds, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula this evening. A cold front entering the northwestern Gulf on Tue will move southeastward and reach from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico Tue night. It will then weaken and reach from the Straits of Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected at the northwestern Gulf behind the front Tue through early Wed. High pressure over the SE United States by the end of the week will support moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the basin, and locally fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds will weaken somewhat for the start of the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. High pressure of 1023 mb located near 27N57W extends a ridge across the northern Caribbean including the all the Greater Antilles. The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean south of Jamaica with fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are seen over the NW part of the basin, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in central Caribbean, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward passage where seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted. Patches of low level moisture, with embedded showers are moving westward across the area, more concentrated over the Leeward Islands and the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, outside of the warning area, fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed morning, occasionally reaching near-gale force. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the approach to the Windward Passage Fri through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas will build to around 8 ft in the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for details on the subsiding swell event over the east-central Atlantic. As previously mentioned, high pressure centered near 27N57W dominates the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and the State of Florida. Light and variable winds are in the vicinity of the high center while moderate to fresh winds are observed around the southern and western peripheries of this system. Seas are 4 to 6 ft E of the Bahamas between 60W and Florida. Long period NW to N swell is affecting most of the waters between 35W and 60W, with seas of 8 to 12 ft covering roughly the waters N of 20N E of 55W. Higher seas of 12 to 14 ft are over the NE corner of the forecast region. A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N28W and continues SW to near 23N45W. A broken band of low level clouds with possible showers is associated with the front. Gentle to moderate winds are on both side of the front per scatterometer data. A significant swell event is in the wake of the front, with seas in the 12 to 15 ft range E of 35W. This swell event is subsiding. A ridge extends across the Madeira and the Canary Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off the SE United States coast on Tue morning, then slowly track southeastward through Fri when it will reach to along 22N/23N. Fresh to strong winds and higher seas are forecast N of 29N in the vicinity of the front Wed, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the vicinity of the front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Bahamas by Thu night. NE swell will build seas to around 8 ft east of the Bahamas by the end of the week. $$ GR