000 AXNT20 KNHC 250912 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Mar 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 10-12 ft each morning in the vicinity of 12N76W. Atlantic large swell event: A storm force low over the N Atlantic has generated a large long-period NW swell. The associated cold front will propagate into the waters E of 55W tonight. Seas greater than 12 ft will propagate into the northern waters in the wake of the front, N of 30N between 40W and 50W tonight. Seas will peak near 17 ft over the waters N of 30N between 40W and 45W Sun night. The swell will propagate southward and eastward, reaching as far south as 25N early Mon before starting to subside. Seas over the discussion waters associated to this swell even will subside below 12 ft Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 00N25W. The ITCZ continues from 00N25W to 04N37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 20W and 52W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of the Yucatan peninsula as well as off Veracruz, Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range N of the Yucatan peninsula, 4-6 ft W of 90W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure ridging extending into the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the western Atlantic will slowly shift south through late Mon. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours through the period. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf late Mon night and move slowly southeastward. The front will reach from northern Florida to NE Mexico by late Tue and the southeastern Gulf to the central Gulf by late Wed. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will follow behind the front. Fresh east to southeast winds develop in the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Strong to gale-force winds are noted within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are found over the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft prevail, except in the lee of Cuba where seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to near gale to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Winds will pulse to strong in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through the weekend. Strong trade winds will prevail over the Gulf of Honduras into early next week. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 30N62W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds are found off the coast of northern Florida. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas in the 8-10 ft range are noted N of 25N between 35W and 45W. Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 ft prevail, except 4-5 ft in the vicinity of the high center. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the area through the weekend, then shift slightly southward next week as a cold front moves across the waters north of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds will be in the vicinity of the cold front along with building seas. Winds are expected to reach near gale- force speeds on either side of the front north of 29N the middle of next week as the front reaches from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas and to east- central Cuba. $$ AL