000 AXNT20 KNHC 242152 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Mar 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Seas are forecast to peak around 10-11 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of 12N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on this event. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 00N25W. The ITCZ continues from 00N25W to the coast of Brazil near 05S30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 37W to 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high-pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic, across Florida and into the central Gulf of Mexico. Recent observations indicate fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft across the western Gulf, while seas are 4 to 6 ft over the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf. Light smoke from agricultural fires may be in place across parts of the western Gulf, although this is less than it has been over recent days. For the forecast, the ridge will slowly shift south through late Mon. Moderate to fresh winds southerly winds will continue across most of the Gulf through late tonight, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf through today. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evening hours through the period. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Mon. Another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late Mon night and move slowly southeastward. The front should reach from northern Florida to NE Mexico by late Tue and possibly reach from the southeastern Gulf to the central Gulf, where it may stall with its western part lifting northward as a warm front by late Wed. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will follow in behind the front. Fresh east to southeast winds develop in the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, where wave heights are reaching 7 to 10 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly flow is noted elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft seas, except 2 to 4 ft seas over the northwest Caribbean. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with pulsing near gale to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through at least Tue night. Winds will continue to pulse to strong in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through the weekend. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras this evening and continue into early next week. Fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad surface ridge extends from just west of the Azores Islands, through 1023 mb high pressure centered near 30N60W to the northern Bahamas. A cold front is analyzed just east of the ridge, from the Azores to 27N45W, where it becomes a stationary front to 23N60W. Fresh NW winds are noted within 90 nm of the front, north of 28N. Wave heights are reaching 8 to 10 ft north of the front in NW swell. Gentle to moderate easterly flow and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the remainder of the north Atlantic south of 30N. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. For the forecast, the surface ridge will change little through the weekend, then shift slightly southward next week as a cold front moves across the waters north of the Bahamas. The cold front will be followed and preceded by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Winds are expected to attain near gale-force speeds on either side of the front north of 29N by late Wed as the front reaches from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas and to east- central Cuba. $$ Christensen