000 AXNT20 KNHC 241108 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Mar 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with pulsing near gale to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through at least Mon night. A ship in the vicinity of 11.1N 76W recently reported a significant wave height of 13 ft. Seas are forecast to peak around 12-13 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of 11N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal boarder of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N13W to 03N20W to 00N28W. The ITCZ continues from 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 01.5S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 00N-04N between 13W-24W, and south of 02N between 36W-47W. The strongest convection within that area is located within 180 nm of the coast of Brazil, from 01N to 03S between 40W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high-pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic, across Florida and into the NE and north-central Gulf of Mexico. Recent buoy data indicate fresh to strong SSE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft across the western Gulf. A diurnal surface trough over the central Bay of Campeche at 0900 UTC is supporting fresh E to SE winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche, where seas are 4-6 ft. Moderate easterly winds are funneling through the Straits of Florida, generating 4-5 ft seas. Light to gentle winds are over the NE Gulf with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure ridging extending into the eastern Gulf of Mexico from the western Atlantic will persist through tonight, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf through today. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan during the evening hours through the next few days. Patchy dense fog is possible near portions of the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this morning, and again tonight through Sat morning. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Mon. Another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Mon night and move slowly southeastward. The front should reach from northern Florida to NE Mexico by late Tue. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will follow in behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin, leading to subsidence and relatively dry conditions. The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh trades across the eastern Caribbean, and fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean. E-NE winds are strong to gale force in the Colombian basin. Fresh NE winds likely prevail over the Windward Passage while fresh E winds are in the lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere over the western Caribbean. Seas are 5-6 ft in the E Caribbean and 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean, except up to 13 ft in the area of gales offshore Colombia. Seas are 6-8 ft in the Windward Passage, 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and lee of Cuba, and generally around 4-5 ft elsewhere across the NW Caribbean. Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, winds will continue to pulse to strong in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through the weekend. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras this evening and continue into early next week. Fresh trades will prevail elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends across the western subtropical Atlantic from a 1025 mb high pressure near 33N58W to 29N70W to Cape Canaveral, FL. Gentle winds prevail within 150 nm of the ridge axis. Winds increase to moderate easterlies south of 27.5N and further increase to fresh from the central Bahamas southward through the Old Bahama Channel. Seas follow a similar trend, ranging from 4-5 ft off northern and central FLorida to 7-8 ft just east of the SE Bahamas. A cold front extends from 31N43W to 25N57W. A shear line is analyzed from 25N57W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Strong NE winds are occurring within 180 nm NW of the cold front, mainly north of 27N and east of 54W. Seas are 10-13 ft in the strong wind area. Fresh winds and 7-10 ft seas prevail elsewhere within 270 nm NW of the front and shear line, to the east of 70W. Fresh SW winds and 8-10 ft seas prevail east of the front to 35W, mainly north of 29N. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the front, mainly north of 29N. East of the aforementioned front, another surface ridge extends WSW from a 1021 mb high near 31N27W to 26N41W to 22N61W. Light to gentle winds and 5-8 ft seas prevail in the ridge area. Fresh NE winds and 8-10 ft seas extend from the coast of Morocco through the Canary Islands SW to about 20N26W. Over the tropical Atlantic, moderate trades and seas of 5-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds NW of the aforementioned shear line will diminish this morning. High pressure ridging will settle in along 28/29N late today, with an E to W orientation. Fresh southerly winds are expected offshore northeast Florida tonight through Sat night as a weak frontal boundary moves just offshore southeastern Georgia and NE Florida. The high pressure ridge will then be nudged southward to along 26N Mon through late Tue as a cold front approaches 31N. Farther east, a cold front will enter the region Sat night, and extend from 31N40W to 27.5N53W by early Sun. The front will bring fresh to strong winds N of 29N between about 34W and 57W. Large NW to N swell will come in behind the front beginning Sun and Sun night, with seas exceeding 12 ft north of 25N between 30W and 53W. The swell will push southeastward through Mon night across portions of the eastern and central Atlantic. $$ Hagen