560 AXNT20 KNHC 232046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Mar 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with pulsing near gale to minimal gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Seas will peak around 12 ft each morning around sunrise in the vicinity of 11N76W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 03N25W to 05NN36W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 10W and 30W, and from 02N to 07N between 33W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure extends from east to west just north of the basin across the SE United States. Moderate to fresh SE return flow and seas of 4-7 ft are across the Gulf west of 90W, with mainly moderate E-SE winds and 3-6 ft seas east of 90W, except 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf. Some haze is reported across the basin due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico. Otherwise, a mid to upper level anticyclone is over the Gulf of Mexico currently, leading to subsidence and dry conditions. For the forecast, high pressure over the southeastern United States will shift eastward into the Atlantic through Sat, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf through Fri. The western extension of the high pressure will extend westward to the eastern Gulf through Mon. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan during the evening through the next few days. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters by early Sat and move southeastward before dissipating Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh return flow will then dominate the basin through Mon. Another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf on Mon and stall. The front will then begin to move southeastward starting late Mon night in response to high pressure that will build southward behind it. It should reach from northern florida to the central Gulf and to inland NE Mexico by late Tue. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds will follow in behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. The mid to upper level anticyclonic flow over the Gulf of Mexico extends southeastward and covers the western two-thirds of the Caribbean Sea. As a result, no significant areas of precipitation are noted. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong easterly winds are affecting the waters of the central Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, along with seas of 7-10 ft. Easterly trade winds are moderate to fresh elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 3-6 ft in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, the gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue to induce strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with pulsing near gale to minimal gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. Pulsing strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola beginning this evening and persist through the weekend. Strong trade winds will develop over the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and continue into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N49W to across the Turks and Caicos Islands to Cuba near 22N77W. Some showers are possible near the front. Strong NE winds are west of the front north of 27N to 63W per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are south fo 27N and west of the front, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds N of 27N and elsewhere west of the front. SEas of 8-13 ft in NE swell is west of the front to 70W, with 4-7 ft seas elsewhere west of the front. In the central and eastern Atlantic, a ridge extends SW from 31N30W to 22N65W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the waters east of the front under the ridge, except fresh to locally strong north of 20N and east of 28W due to a locally tight pressure gradient with weak low pressure noted off the coast of Africa near 22N19W. For seas, NW swell is supporting 7-10 ft heights across the area of fresh to strong winds, with 5-7 ft heights in primarily N-NE swell elsewhere, except 4-6 ft south of 20N and east of 30W. For the forecast west of 55W, the northern portion of the stationary front will transition back to a cold front tonight and move southeastward, reaching from 25N55W to 23N63W early Fri before dissipating. Fresh to strong northeast winds and high seas will continue behind this front north of 26N and east of 64W through tonight. High pressure will settle in near 29N66W late Fri, with an east to west ridge extending westward to central Florida. Fresh southerly winds are expected offshore NE Florida Fri night and last into Sat night as a weak frontal boundary moves just offshore southeastern Georgia and NE Florida. The high pressure will then be nudged southward through late Tue as a cold front approaches 31N. $$ Lewitsky