000 AXNT20 KNHC 211013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Mar 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: As the stationary front in the northwestern Caribbean dissipates today, the gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean will tighten. This will cause strong winds in the south-central Caribbean with winds pulsing to gale force nightly off the coast of Colombia for the next several nights, beginning tonight. Seas will reach 12 ft near the gale force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N20W to 02N28W. The ITCZ continues from 02N28W to 01N34W to 02S39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 06N, between 08W and 18W. Similar convection is observed from the equator to 05N, between 24W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging from the Ohio River Valley and Appalachians extends southward into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. In the western Gulf, the latest buoy data is reporting fresh to strong winds from the SE-SSE with 6-8 ft seas. Seas are 5-6 ft in the southern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida, on an abating trend. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the SE United States through the work week, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf through tonight, and again Wed night through early Fri. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan during the evening through the next several days. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters late Fri and move eastward while losing strength. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information about an ongoing Gale Warning. A dissipating stationary front is analyzed across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba near 21N78W to the Bay Islands near 16.5N86W. NW of the front, fresh NE winds are occurring with 7-9 ft seas, confirmed by a 21/0330 UTC altimeter pass. Within 150 nm SE of the front, winds are moderate with slight seas. A building pressure gradient is supporting fresh trades in the eastern and central Caribbean, strong in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft, except 7-10 ft in the south-central Caribbean. For the forecast, Fresh NNE winds will persist in the Yucatan Channel and far northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras through this morning. Marine conditions will improve later this morning as the stalled front dissipates. Strong trades will persist over the south-central Caribbean during the next several days, pulsing to gale force at night offshore Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the eastern and north-central Caribbean through Wed. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Mona and Windward Passages and south of Hispaniola Wed through late week. Looking ahead, strong E winds are likely to develop over the Gulf of Honduras Fri night and persist into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N69W to 26N72W to central Cuba near 21N78W. Scattered showers are observed within 120 nm of the front, except within 150 nm ahead of the front north of 27N. North of 29N and behind the front westward to 79.5W, winds are strong from the NE with 8-12 ft seas. Otherwise winds are moderate to fresh with moderate seas in the western Atlantic. The central Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb high pressure centered near 32N43W. The high extends a surface ridge WSW to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Winds are gentle near the high and moderate elsewhere near the ridge axis. Well to the SE of the ridge axis, NE to E trade winds are fresh to locally strong over portions of the area from 12N to 25N between 26W and 56W. Seas are 8-10 ft in this area. Similar conditions extend from 25N to 30N between 21W and 26W. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will continue behind the western Atlantic cold front north of 27N as it moves southeastward through Thu. The front will reach from near 31N63W to 23N75W this evening and from near 29N55W to 23N73W early Thu. High pressure ridging will build in Fri along 28N. $$ Hagen