859 AXNT20 KNHC 210353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Mar 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: As the stationary front in the northwestern Caribbean dissipates through Tue, the gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean will tighten. This will cause fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean with winds pulsing nightly to gale force off the coast of Colombia Tue and Wed. Seas will reach 12 ft near the gale force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to 02S39W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 06N, between 08W and 17W. Similar convection is observed from the equator to 04N, between 31W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging from the Ohio River Valley dominates the basin. In the western Gulf winds are fresh to strong from the SE with 6-8 ft seas. Seas are 5-7 ft in the southern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits, on an abating trend. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate winds and seas. For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the SE United States through the work week, allowing for primarily moderate to fresh winds, except for fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf tonight through Tue night, and again Thu and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off NW Yucatan during the evening through the next several days. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters late Fri and move eastward while losing strength. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information about an ongoing Gale Warning. A dissipating stationary front is analyzed across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to Honduras. NW of the front, winds are fresh to strong from the NE with 7-10 ft seas. SE of the front, winds are moderate with slight seas. A building pressure gradient is supporting fresh to strong trades in the central and eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast, a weakening stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Cayman Islands to eastern Honduras. Fresh to strong NNE winds and rough seas will persist in the Yucatan Channel and far northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Marine conditions will improve by early Tue as the stalled front dissipates. Strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore Colombia tonight, pulsing to gale force at night Tue night through Fri night. Fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the eastern and north- central Caribbean, including the Atlantic Passages through Wed. Large trade wind swell will continue to affect the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Tue night before subsiding Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N72W to central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered showers are observed within 120 nm of the front. Behind the front and north of 29N, winds are fresh to strong from the NE with 8-12 ft seas. Otherwise winds are moderate to fresh with moderate seas in the western Atlantic. The central Atlantic is dominated by a 1030 mb high pressure centered near 31N43W. Winds are gentle near the high, increasing to fresh to strong from the NE-E south of 25N and east of 27W. Seas are 8-10 ft across the majority of the central Atlantic within these winds. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected behind the front north of 27N as it moves southeastward over the next few days. The front will reach from near 31N63W to 23N75W Tue evening and from near 28.5N55W to near 23N70W early Thu. High pressure ridging will build in Fri along 28N. $$ Flynn