000 AXNT20 KNHC 191728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Mar 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: N winds of 30-40 kt will persist in the SW Gulf offshore near Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico until early tomorrow morning. Seas are currently 12 to 14 ft in the south- central and SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Once the cold front exits the Gulf of Mexico tonight, winds and seas should gradually subside through early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the Gale Warning. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING for the AGADIR Offshore Zone, with ongoing gales continuing through 20/0000 UTC. Seas are currently 8-10 ft, locally 11 ft in the strongest winds. Please see the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast and Warning at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more information. The special feature for a significant swell event is now discontinued, since seas within the area of swell have subsided below 12 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N11W and continues to 01N27W. The ITCZ continues from 01N27W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 04N between 21W and 24W. Scattered showers are elsewhere in the vicinity of both boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information about a Gale Warning. A strong cold front extends from the Everglades in SW Florida to the N Yucatan Peninsula. In the lee of the front, seas exceed 8 ft in the waters south of 28N, with peak seas to 14 ft in the Gale Warning area. Strong to near gale force N winds are collocated with these seas south of 28N. Elsewhere north of 28N and in far eastern coastal waters, N winds are fresh with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast, the cold front will shift SE of the area today, with marine conditions gradually improving. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop briefly over the western Gulf Tue before diminishing slightly the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening shear line remains in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in the eastern and central Caribbean with 4-7 ft seas, locally 8 ft in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. In the W Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate with 2-4 ft seas. A weak surface trough extends from the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of Honduras, producing a few showers. For the forecast, a 1028 mb high pressure centered near 30N53W will support fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds, and moderate to locally rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon. Moderate northerly swell will persist in the Atlantic passages through midweek. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse off Colombia through Mon, increase slightly Tue, and possibly reach gale-force Tue night and Wed night. Winds and seas will increase in the Yucatan Channel and far northwestern Caribbean this evening through Mon as a cold front moves into the area. Winds and seas over these waters will diminish late Mon night through Tue as the stalled front dissipates. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on an East Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France. A cold front enters the area near 31N29W and continues to 24N36W, where a dissipating cold front begins and continues to 17N51W, where a weakening shear line begins and continues through the Lesser Antilles. No significant convection is noted with these features at this time. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central tropical Atlantic, north of 10N between 30W and 60W, within subsiding NW swell. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere in the basin. A cold front in the far NW waters, from 31N73W to Miami, FL. 1028 mb high pressure centered near 30N53W dominates most of the basin, providing gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Fresh NE to E winds are noted on scatterometer south of 20N and west of 40W to the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front currently in the W Atlantic will move east and stall from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Mon morning. A new set of northerly swell will propagate into the forecast waters late Mon night. Winds will strengthen north of the stalled front Mon, then diminish mid week. $$ Mahoney