000 AXNT20 KNHC 190535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Mar 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N34W SW to near Dominica in the Leeward Islands. Large and long period NW swell is analyzed behind this front. Seas in excess of 12 ft are north of 27N between the front and 60W with peak seas of 13 ft, however seas in excess of 8 ft extends as far south as 15N and cover the waters between 33W and 65W. An altimeter pass indicates seas of 9 to 12 ft within about 120 nm E of the Leeward Islands. This swell event will continue to propagate eastward and gradually diminish through the overnight hours, with seas subsiding below 12 ft by early Sun morning. At this time, seas of 8 to 11 ft will continue to dominate most of the waters E of 60W. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong to near-gale force northerly winds and rough seas follow a cold front extending from near Tampa Bay to the central Bay of Campeche. Altimeter data and buoy observations indicate seas in the 8 to 12 ft range in the wake of the front, particularly over the west and central parts of the basin. Frequent gusts to gale-force are expected at the central Gulf through Sun evening, and in the eastern Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. As the front reaches from the Florida Keys to northern Yucatan Peninsula Sun morning, expect sustained gale force northerly winds to persist offshore Veracruz. The front will move southeast of the area by early Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front will allow winds and seas to diminish across most the Gulf through Mon, although fresh to strong winds over the western Gulf will persist and shift SE Mon night into Tue evening. Looking ahead, winds and seas will continue to diminish across the remainder of the Gulf through mid week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the Gale Warning and Significant Swell above. Atlantic Gale Warning E of 35W: A recent scatterometer pass provided observations of gale force winds near the coast of Morocco in the offshore zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. Latest Meteo-France forecast maintains a Gale Warning for Agadir through 20/00Z. However, the Gale Warning for Tarfaya has expired at 19/00Z. Seas in this area will range from 10 to 14 ft. For more information please see the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast and Warning at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the African coast of Liberia near 06N11W, and extends west-southwestward to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues westward from 02N22W to 01N35W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 05N between 05W and 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front continues to move across the Gulf region and currently extends from near Tampa Bay, FL to the central Bay of Campeche. Please see the Special Features section for more information. Abundant cloudiness is noted across the Gulf region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of front over the SE Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong high pressure of 1032 mb located near the Coahuila/southern Texas border follows the front and extends a ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure is resulting in gale force winds across the western Gulf, including the Tampico and Veracruz areas. Recent satellite derived wind data confirmed the presence of these winds. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted elsewhere behind the front. For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for details. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line from the Atlantic extends across the eastern Caribbean along 15N crossing just south of Dominica in the Leeward Islands. Mainly fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are N of this boundary over the Caribbean Sea while fresh to strong winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are noted N of this system just E of the Leeward Islands. Patches of low level moisture with embedded showers are noted over the NE Caribbean behind the front affecting mainly the Leeward Islands, the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Surface high pressure of 1026 mb centered near 30N55W continues to extend a ridge across the NE Caribbean to eastern Cuba. This is resulting in the continuation of fresh to locally strong winds in the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. A weaker pressure gradient across the western Caribbean support gentle to moderate SE winds, except for fresh SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and moderate to occasionally rough seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through late Sun. Large northerly swell will persist at the Atlantic passages through the overnight hours. Fresh to strong easterly winds will continue to pulse off Colombia through Mon, then increase to between strong and near-gale by Tue. Winds and seas are expected to increase in the Yucatan Channel and far northwest Caribbean by Sun night as a cold front moves into the area. These winds and seas should gradually diminish through Tue as the stalled front dissipates ATLANTIC OCEAN... As previously mentioned, a cold front extends from 31N34W SW to near Dominica in the Leeward Islands. A significant swell event follows this front. Please see the Special Features section for more information. A cold front has entered de western Atlantic and stretches from 31N77W to near Cape Canaveral, FL. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front per scatterometer data, covering the waters N of 29N E of front to about 70W. High pressure centered near 30N55W has a ridge that extends westward toward the Bahamas. This is supporting fresh to occasionally strong E to SE winds off Hispaniola. Another cold front is over the Atlantic and extends from 31N34W SW to near Dominica in the Leeward Islands. This is the cold front associated with the significant swell event in the Special Features. See above for more details. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1026 mb high pressure located between the Madeira and the Azores Islands. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over NW Africa supports the gale force winds near the coast of Morocco. For the forecast W of 55W, large northerly swell west of 65W will subside through Sun, except for northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Meanwhile, expect fresh to strong southerly flow and building seas north of 29N ahead of the aforementioned cold front forecast to move east and stall from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase north of the stalled front Mon through mid week with NE swell. $$ GR