000 AXNT20 KNHC 170522 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Mar 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N50W to the NE Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data indicate only a few gale force wind barbs near 26N54W. As a result, the Gale Warning is allowed to expire. Fresh to strong winds are noted on either side of the front N of 22N. Large N swell accompanies this front, currently peaking near 16 ft. Seas of 12 ft or greater are noted generally N of 25N W of the front to about 70W based on altimeter data and buoy observations. The front will continue moving southeastward and reach from 31N45W to 20N55W through the northern Leeward Islands by this morning. Strong to gale-force NW winds immediately behind the front will continue across the waters east of 60W during the overnight hours. Large N swell behind this front will spread southward to 20N and east of 75W. Seas behind the front are not expected to subside below 12 ft until Sun as the front moves E of 35W. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf this morning, causing strong to near- gale northerly winds and building seas. As this front moves southeastward, these conditions will spread to the north-central and southwestern Gulf by this afternoon. Winds will reach gale force at the west-central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche near Veracruz, Mexico Fri afternoon through evening. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected in the wake of the front, building to 13 or 14 ft in area of gale force winds. The front will reach from southern Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Sat evening, bringing strong to near-gale N to NE winds into the northeastern and central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens across the Gulf region. Frequent gusts to gale-force are possible at the central Gulf Sat evening through Sun with seas building again to 9 to 13 ft. As the front continues southeastward passing the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits on Sun night, both winds and seas should gradually subside across the Gulf on Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 06N11W then continues SW to near 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 01N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 01N between 35W and 40W, and between 47W and 50W. Most of the convective activity is currently south of the equator. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb high pressure located east of northern Florida dominates the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico supports fresh to strong return flow over the western Gulf with seas of 6 to 8 ft per altimeter data. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are over the eastern Gulf with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range, with the exception of fresh to locally strong easterly winds over the Straits of Florida and just off the north coast of west and central Cuba. For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Gulf waters today producing strong to gale force winds and building seas. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends across the Anegada Passage into the Caribbean Sea crossing just south of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Jamaica. A band of multi-layer clouds with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms remains associated with the front and continues to affect the aforementioned Greater Antilles. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NW Caribbean likely related to remnants of the front over this area. Mainly fresh northerly winds are behind the front E of Hispaniola. Altimeter data and buoy observations indicate seas of 8 to 10 ft across the Atlantic waters of Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. As previously mentioned, a high pressure of 1023 mb is centered over the western Atlantic near 30N76W. This is supporting fresh to strong winds over the Windward Passage as well as south of Cuba. Fresh to locally strong E winds are between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Moderate to fresh trades are noted over the south- central and SE Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range S of Cuba, near the Cayman Islands, and over the Windward Passage. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are in the area of moderate to fresh winds near the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, and seas of 2 to 3 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will sink farther southward today and tonight reaching to near 15N on Sat before gradually dissipating by Sun. Strong winds will follow the front, locally higher in Atlantic passages with large N swell spreading through Atlantic passages through Sat. Another front is expected to move slowly southeastward through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Sun and stall across the Yucatan Channel Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N50W to the NE Caribbean. A swell event follows the front with seas in excess of 12 ft. Please see Special Features section above for more details. High pressure of 1023 mb located near 30N76W dominates the western Atlantic, including the State of Florida and the Bahamas. The associated ridge extends southward toward Cuba and Hispaniola. Cold air stratocumulus clouds, and a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow are seen under the influence of this system with seas of 4 to 6 ft E of the Bahamas. Winds and seas increase E of 70W due to the presence of the above mentioned cold front. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by another high pressure system of 1020 mb situated near 31N32W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring between the Canary Islands and downwind to near 23N. These winds are also affecting the coast of Western Saharan. Seas of 11 to 14 ft in N swell are observed per altimeter data near the high pressure center, particularly N of 26N between 27W and 38W. Mainly moderate NE to E trades are blowing across the tropical Atlantic, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in NW to N swell prevailing between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, the next cold front is expected to move off northeastern Florida on Sat, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it Fri evening through Sat. This front is expected to reach from 31N72W to S Florida late Sun before stalling. $$ GR