000 AXNT20 KNHC 162102 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Mar 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N51W to Hispaniola. A small area of gale force northerly winds prevails within 60 nm west of the front from 22N to 26N. The front will continue to move SE. Strong to gale-force NW winds will shift eastward immediately behind the front through tonight. Large N swell accompanies this front, currently peaking near 15 ft. Seas of 12 ft or greater are noted generally N of 25N between 53W and 71W. spreading southward to 22N and E of 69W by this evening. Currently, peak seas of 13-16 ft are N of 26N between 55W and 70W. Seas behind the front are not expected to subside below 12 ft until Sun as the front moves E of 35W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 06N11W then continues SW to near 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 01S36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 04N between 26W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong return flow prevails over the NW Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere W of 90W. Moderate winds are noted E of 90W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in the area of fresh to strong winds and 5-6 ft elsewhere W of 90W. East of 90W, seas are in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to strong return flow will spread to the entire Gulf tonight, ahead of the next cold front. This front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, reaching from Apalachee Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche Sat morning. Brief gale- force N winds are expected behind the front offshore of the upper Mexican waters Fri afternoon, shifting to offshore Veracruz Fri night. The front will then stall and weaken across the SE Gulf, and sink slowly SE across the Yucatan Channel Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure of 1025 mb is centered off the coast of South Carolina. This is supporting fresh to strong winds over the Windward Passage as well as south of Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds are found S of 15N and E of 77W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range S of Cuba, and 5-7 ft over the Windward Passage. Seas in the 4-6 ft range are noted in the area of gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-3 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, surface ridge extending from the E central Atlantic to the NE Caribbean and will shift NE through the weekend, as a cold front continues to sink S-SE across the northern basin. The front will reach from the northern Leeward Islands to the central Caribbean along 17N Fri morning, then become aligned E to W along 15N Sat before gradually dissipating by Sun. Strong winds will follow the front, locally higher in Atlantic passages, with large N swell spreading through Atlantic passages early Fri through Sat. Another front is expected to move slowly SE through the SE Gulf Sun and stall across the Yucatan Channel Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for more on a cold front and associated winds and seas. Aside from the area of gale force winds, fresh to strong winds are west of the front to 70W, as well as within 120 nm east of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are found W of 70W, as well as S of 20N. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Aside from the area of 12 ft seas, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 22N and E of 75W. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will continue moving SE and reach from 20N55W through the northern Leeward Islands by Fri morning. Strong to gale-force NW winds immediately behind the front will shift across the SE waters through tonight. Large N swell will accompany this front, with seas of 12 ft or greater spreading to 20N and E of 75W. The next cold front is expected to move off NE Florida on Sat, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it Fri evening through Sat. This front is expected to reach from 31N72W to S Florida late Sun before stalling. $$ AL