000 AXNT20 KNHC 142100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Mar 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will extend from 31N52W to 25N63W to 20.5N74W on Thu morning. Gale-force winds will develop in the vicinity of the front from 21N-26N between 65W-75W. Seas will range from 8-11 ft within the strongest winds. These conditions will follow the front as it moves E through Fri. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell, with significant wave heights of 12 to 15 ft, is occurring N of 25N between 35W-66W. The highest seas of 14 ft and above are occurring N of 28N between 35W-45W. This swell was generated by a frontal system sweeping through the region, with the cold front currently extending from 31N33W to 23N44W. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring on both sides of the front, generally north of 28N between 31W-45W. The area of seas 12 ft will subside below 12 ft by Wed afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N between 30W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the basin from the Straits of Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted N of the front, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are south of the front. Scattered moderate convection is along and N of the front and W of 90W. For the forecast, the stationary front will get reinforced with a surge of fresh to strong winds tonight allowing it to push SE of the basin Wed. Return flow will develop across the W Gulf by Wed night, become fresh to strong Thu and spread to the entire Gulf Thu night, ahead of the next cold front. This next front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, reaching from Apalachee Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche Sat morning. Gale-force N winds are briefly possible behind the front offshore the upper Mexican waters late Fri afternoon, shifting to offshore Veracruz Fri evening and night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean waters. This is resulting in moderate to locally fresh winds over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range in the area of moderate to fresh winds, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, winds will increase slightly through Wed, with fresh winds pulsing to strong winds at night in the south-central and southeast portions. Moderate northerly swell will move through the Atlantic waters and NE Caribbean Passages tonight then gradually subside through Thu morning. A cold front is forecast to sink S-SE across the northwestern basin Wed and Wed night, reach from the Windward Passage to Belize on Thu, and then from the northern Leeward Islands to the central Caribbean along 16N Fri. Strong winds will follow the front, locally higher in Atlantic passages, with Large N swell spreading through Atlantic passages through early Fri through Sat. Another front may stall near or just N of the Yucatan Channel for the end of the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on the Gale Warning and the Significant Swell event. Aside from the conditions and features associated with the areas mentioned above, a cold front extends from 31N64W to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong winds prevail within 180 nm east of the front north of 28N. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere within 120 nm east of the front as well as west of the front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are also N of 20N and east of 25W, reaching strong speeds within 120 nm of the coast of Africa. Seas greater than 8 ft cover the discussion waters N of 15N between 4W and 62W, and N of 25N between 33W and 77W. Seas of 4-7 ft are found elsewhere, reaching 8 ft off in the areas of strong winds off the coast of Africa. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue moving SE, reaching from 31N59W to central Cuba Wed morning, from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage Thu morning, and from 20N55W through the Leeward Islands by Fri morning. Strong to gale-force northerly winds immediately behind the front will move through the Central and SE Bahamas Wed night, and then shift across the SE waters and into the Caribbean Islands Thu and Thu night. Another set of large N swell will accompany this front, with seas of 12 ft or greater N of 23N and E of 73W. Yet another cold front is expected to move off Florida this weekend, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it Fri night through Sat. That front may reach from 31N70W to S Florida while possibly stalling. $$ AL