000 AXNT20 KNHC 141656 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Mar 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will extend from 31N52W to 25N63W to 20.5N74W on Thu morning. Gale-force winds will develop in the vicinity of the front from 21N-26N between 65W-75W. Seas will range from 8-11 ft within the strongest winds. These conditions will follow the front as it moves E through Fri. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell, with significant wave heights of 12 to 17 ft, is occurring N of 23N between 38W-68W. The highest seas of 14 ft and above are occurring N of 28N between 39W-50W. This swell was generated by a frontal system sweeping through the region, with the cold front currently extending from 31N35W to 20N57W. Moderate to fresh winds are occurring on both sides of the front, generally north of 28N between 29W-48W. The area of seas 12 ft and higher will move E through Wed then lift of out the NE waters Wed afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 06N25W. The ITCZ continues from 06N25W to coastal Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03N between 26W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front stretches across the basin from the Straits of Florida to 24N85W, then becomes stationary to 22N97W. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted N of the front, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is along and N of the front and W of 90W. For the forecast, front will get reinforced with a surge of fresh to strong winds tonight allowing it to push SE of the basin by early Wed. Return flow will develop across the W Gulf by Wed night, become fresh to strong Thu and spread to the entire Gulf Thu night, ahead of the next cold front. This next front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, reaching from Apalachee Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche Sat morning. Gale-force N winds are briefly possible behind the front offshore the upper Mexican waters late Fri afternoon, shifting to offshore Veracruz Fri evening and night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fair and stable conditions persist across the Caribbean basin due to mid to upper-level ridging and weak low level winds. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across most of the basin, S of 17N and E of 78W, fresh SE winds are in the Gulf of Honduras, and light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in the southern Caribbean, and 4-5 ft across the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are up to 7 ft in the Mona and Anegada Passages in N-NE swell. For the forecast, winds will increase slightly through Wed, with fresh winds pulsing to strong winds at night in the south-central and southeast portions. Moderate northerly swell will gradually subside through Thu morning. A cold front is forecast to sink S-SE across the northwestern basin Wed, reach from the Windward Passage to Belize on Thu, and then from the northern Leeward Islands to the central Caribbean along 16N Fri. Strong winds will follow the front, locally higher in Atlantic passages, with Large N swell spreading through Atlantic passages through early Fri through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning and the Significant Swell event currently in effect. A 985 mb low pressure is centered N of the area, dragging a cold front through 31N67W to 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring ahead of the front to 60W and N of 28N. Seas are 8 to 13 ft in this area. To the west of the front towards the coast of Florida, moderate to fresh NW winds prevail, along with 7 to 9 ft in NE swell. Weak high pressure ridging persists from the SE Bahamas eastward along 21N, yielding light to gentle anticyclonic winds south of 25N between 50W and the Bahamas. Seas are 8 ft or higher in N swell to the north of 18N between 47W and E of the Bahamas. High pressure of 1027 mb centered near 38N11W is inducing fresh to strong NE winds from Morocco and Western Sahara to the Canary Islands, with seas of 6-9 ft. In the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 18N between 30W and 60W, moderate to locally fresh NE trades prevail, with seas of 6-8 ft in decaying N swell. For the forecast W of 55W, the large N swell will subside tonight through Wed. A cold front will reach from 31N59W to central Cuba Wed morning, from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage Thu morning, and from 20N55W through the Leeward Islands by Fri morning. Strong to possibly gale-force northerly winds immediately behind the front will move through the Bahamas Wed night, and then shift across the SE waters and into the Caribbean Islands Thu. Another set of large N swell will accompany this front, with seas of 12 ft or greater N of 24N and E of 72W. Yet another cold front is expected to move off Florida this weekend, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it Fri night through Sat. $$ ERA