000 AXNT20 KNHC 122224 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Mar 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N55W and continues southwestward to 24N69W to the Bahamas near 24N75W. Near-gale to gale force SW winds are ahead of the front N of 27N to about 49W. Fresh to strong SW winds extend southward to 24N and eastward to 44W. Numerous showers with some thunderstorms are within 240 nm ahead of the front affecting mainly the waters N of 24N and east of 64W. Gale-force westerly winds are behind the front to the N of 30N, westward to 64W. Strong W to NW winds extend southward to 27N and westward to 68W. Seas N of 27N are 12 to 15 ft ahead of the front and 12 to 21 ft behind the front. The active weather is expected to shift eastward with the front through this evening. The cold front will move quickly ESE across the northern waters, and extend from near 31N46W to 23N60W early Mon. By early Mon, the gale force winds will have ended, but strong winds will still be occurring N of 27N between 38W and 59W. Seas are forecast to peak at 20 to 24 ft tonight into Mon north of 29N between 46W and 63W. Through Mon night, seas of 12 ft or greater will be experienced for most of the area north of 21N between 37W and 70W in large NW to N swell. The swell across the Atlantic will begin to gradually subside late Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the gale and swell events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through coast of Liberia near 07N11W, then continues SW to near 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to the equator at 25W to 00N50W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted from 01N to 05N between 05W and 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing fresh SW winds across the north-central Gulf, and moderate S to SW winds over the E Gulf. Gentle S winds prevail for the SW and west-central Gulf. The latest buoy and altimeter data show seas of 3 to 5 ft across the basin, except for 2-4 ft in the E Gulf and SW Gulf. A broad upper ridge is inducing fair weather across the Gulf, with skies mostly cloud free, except for smoke and haze due to agricultural fires across the nearshore waters of Mexico. A line of thunderstorms is located along the coast and extends up to 30 nm offshore between Apalachicola, FL and Pensacola. For the forecast, high pressure over the extreme SE Gulf will shift E of the Bahamas through Mon with moderate to fresh southerly flow across the basin. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf tonight, then sink gradually southward through Tue, and exit the basin on Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected N of the front Mon through Wed. Strong southerly winds will develop over the W and NW Gulf on Thu ahead of the next approaching cold front forecast to move into the NW Gulf early Fri. This front will reach from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Fri night. Gale force winds are possible west of the front off Tampico, Mexico Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are noted across the basin producing isolated passing showers over the southern portion of the basin. Otherwise fair weather prevails. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across most of the basin, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh SE winds W of 84W, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trades may also be occurring in the far SE Caribbean offshore Venezuela. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range east of 70W and 3-5 ft elsewhere, except for 1-3 ft in the north-central Caribbean, north of 16N between 71W and 83W. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern is yielding below normal tradewinds across the basin. Tradewinds will increase Mon night through Wed. Large northerly swell impacting the regional Atlantic waters, including the passages of the NE Caribbean, will gradually subside through early Mon. New northerly swell will arrive Tue. Fresh to strong ESE winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue morning. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern basin early Wed, and reach from the Windward Passage to northern Gulf of Honduras Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N55W and continues southwestward to 24N69W to the Bahamas near 24N75W. Gale force winds are on either side of the front north of 29N. Please see the Special Features section for more details. Large N swell continues to reach the coasts of the Leeward Islands where seas are 7 to 8 ft. Another cold front extends from 31N25W to 24N36W. Large northerly swell generated well north of the area in recent days continues to spread across most of the regional Atlantic waters from 05N to 27N between and E of 60W with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range. Seas directly behind the front are currently 9 to 11 ft E of 35W. A 1022 mb high pressure is analyzed in the wake of the front near 32N28W. A 1021 mb high pressure located over the Madeira Islands, anchors a ridge extending SW into the eastern tropical Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are over the Cabo Verde Islands extending west-southwestward. Seas W of those islands are 8 to 9 ft in NW swell across much of the waters E of 35W. For the forecast W of 55W, the western Atlantic cold front will extend from 28N55W to the southern Bahamas this evening, and from 25N55W to 23N61W early Mon before dissipating west of 55W. Gale- force W winds will prevail behind the front N of 30N and E of 62W tonight. Moderate to large N to NE swell currently dominating the regional waters will gradually subside through tonight S of 25N, while seas N of 25N will remain 10 ft and higher through early next week. Another cold front will enter the far NW waters Mon, then continue SE, reaching the NW Bahamas Tue morning, and from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage by Thu morning. Fresh to near- gale force SW winds will develop tonight offshore northern Florida ahead of this front. $$ Hagen