000 AXNT20 KNHC 121753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Mar 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N56W and continues southwestward to the NW Bahamas where it becomes stationary. Strong to minimal gale force SW winds are ahead of the front N of 28N to about 52W. Fresh to strong SW winds extend S to 25N. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front affecting mainly the waters N of 26N between the front and 52W. Minimal gale-force westerly winds are behind the front to the N of 30N, with strong NW to W winds extending southward to 27N. Seas N of 26N are 10 to 14 ft ahead of the front and 12 to 16 ft behind the front. The active weather is expected to shift eastward with the front through Sun. The cold front will move quickly ESE across the northern waters, and extend from near 28N55W to the southern Bahamas by this evening, then dissipate. During this time, gale-force SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front, N of 28.5N, and W gales are forecast behind the front N of 30N and E of 67W. Moderate to large N to NE swell currently dominating the regional waters will gradually subside through tonight S of 25N, while seas N of 25N will remain 10 ft and higher through early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the gale and swell events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through coast of Liberia near 06N10W, then continues SW to near 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to the equator at 30W to 00N50W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted from 02N to 05N between 05W and 10W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 04N between 10W and 16W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft based on an altimeter pass and buoys observations, except 1 to 3 ft in NE Gulf. A broad upper ridge is inducing fair weather across the Gulf, with skies mostly cloud free, except for smoke and haze due to agricultural fires across the nearshore waters of Mexico. Several coastal cities are reporting haze. For the forecast, high pressure over the extreme SE Gulf will shift E of the Bahamas through Mon with moderate to fresh southerly flow across the basin. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf tonight, then sink gradually southward through Tue, and exit the basin on Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected N of the front Mon through Wed. Strong southerly winds will develop over the W and NW Gulf on Thu ahead of the next approaching cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are noted across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Otherwise fair weather prevails. Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin, with the exception of moderate to fresh SE winds W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Channel. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range across most of the central and eastern Caribbean, except 6-8 ft in N-NE swell across the Mona and Anegada Passages. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras while seas of 1 to 3 ft dominates the NW part of the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern is yielding a below normal tradewinds across the basin. Tradewinds will increase again Mon night through Wed. Large northerly swell impacting the regional Atlantic waters, including passages of the NE Caribbean, will gradually subside through early Mon. New northerly swell will arrive Tue. Fresh to strong ESE winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue morning. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern basin early Wed, and reach from the Windward Passage to northern Gulf of Honduras Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N57W and continues southwestward to the NW Bahamas where it becomes stationary. Minimal gale force winds are on either side of the front. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Large N to NE swell continues to reach the coasts of the Leeward Islands where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Another cold front extends from 31N26W to 20N38W where it becomes stationary to near 20N45W. A frontal trough continues from 20N45W to just N of Barbados near 14N60W. Large northerly swell generated well north of the area in recent days continue to spread across most of the regional Atlantic waters N of 10N and E of 60W with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range. Seas directly behind the front are currently 12 to 14 ft E of 35W. A 1024 mb high pressure is analyzed in the wake of the front near 29N38W. A 1022 mb high pressure located over the Madeira Islands, anchors a ridge extending SW into the eastern tropical Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are over the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas there are 7 to 9 ft in NW swell across much of the waters E of 35W, except in the lee of the islands. Visible satellite pictures, and the Meteosat RGB Dust imagery indicate the presence of African dust over the Atlantic near the coasts of Mauritania and Western Saharan. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front from near 31N56W to the northern Bahamas will move quickly ESE across the northern waters. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. Another cold front will enter the far NW waters Mon, then continue SE, reaching the NW Bahamas Tue morning, and from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage by Thu morning. $$ GR