000 AXNT20 KNHC 092209 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Mar 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning and Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N38W to Hispaniola. Gale force winds remain on both sides of the front, mainly north of 27N within 90 nm east of the front. Seas are peaking near 20 ft. Rough seas cover the majority of the west and central subtropical North Atlantic. Seas in excess of 12 ft are currently observed N of a line from 30N68W to 22N53W to 30N32W. Winds will slowly decrease, diminishing below gale- force by Fri. The swell from this event will continue to propagate SE and gradually subside through the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the gale and swell events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 08N14W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N between 30W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening frontal trough extends from near 27N85W to the Straits of Florida. High pressure prevails elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Gentle to modetrate anticyclonic flow prevails. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the SW Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the frontal trough will dissipate tonight. Moderate east winds are east of the trough, except for fresh east winds in the Straits of Florida. These winds diminish some early this evening, but remain at fresh speeds in the Straits of Florida through tonight. A cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf region Fri, and move over the northern Gulf waters by Fri night reaching from near Tampa Bay to NW Gulf early on Sat, then dissipate by early Sat evening. A third cold front will likely enter the NW Gulf Sun night into Mon. This front is forecast to reach the far south Gulf Tue and exit the Gulf Tue evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted in the Windward Passage as well as between Jamaica and Haiti. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range in the area of moderate to fresh winds, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front extending from near 20N56W southwestward to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will continue to sink southward tonight as it weakens. Scattered showers are along the front. A significant swell event in the wake of the front is leading to potentially hazardous marine conditions over the Atlantic waters and in the northeast Caribbean passages. The front will reach from the Leeward Islands to Jamaica to the western tip of Cuba on Fri before dissipating Fri night. The swell event will also propagate across the waters E of Leeward Islands late Thu into Fri. Gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the remainder of the forecast period, except for moderate to fresh winds in the southeastern and south-central Caribbean and fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Mon morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on a gale warning and associated high seas across the Atlantic forecast waters this week. A cold front extends from 31N38W to Hispaniola. Please see the Special Features section above for more on the cold front. Aside from the gale force winds, fresh to strong winds cover much of the discussion waters N of 20N W of 30W, reaching near gale force N of 25N between 35W and 52W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from the area of 12 ft or greater seas, seas of 8 ft or greater are noted N of a line from 30N77W to 20N55W to 30N20W. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to sink southward tonight as it weakens. Fresh to strong W to NW winds E of 75W will increase to strong to near gale-force as they shift to the northeast forecast waters by Fri afternoon. A significant swell event in the wake of the front is bringing seas of 12-17 ft to the waters N of 12N and E of about 67W. Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S. coast by Fri afternoon, bringing strong to near gale-force SW to W winds ahead of it to waters east of Florida. This front will move eastward across the area during the weekend, with minimal gale- force winds possible ahead of the front. Yet another cold front may move off the southeastern U.S. coast Sun night and reach from near 31N68W to eastern Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong SW winds will precede the front, and mainly fresh NW winds will follow the front. Seas will build behind this front N and NE of the Bahamas. $$ AL