000 AXNT20 KNHC 091803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Mar 09 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning and Swell Event: A cold front passes through 31N41W to 24N50W, 20N60W, through the northern one-third of Hispaniola, to SE Cuba. The front is stationary from SE Cuba, through the northern sections of Cuba, to 24N81W in the Straits of Florida. A surface trough continues to 27N86W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the ESE of the cold front from 22N northward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere within 120 nm on either side of the rest of the frontal boundary. SW gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 15 feet to 19 feet, are from 27N to 31N between 36W and 48W. W gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 17 feet to 23 feet, are from 30.5N to 31N between 48.5W and 57W. Strong and faster cyclonic wind flow is to the north of the line: 31N30W 19N49W 19N60W 30N75W. Mostly moderate or slower wind speeds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights are 8 feet and higher, in general, to the north of the line: at 20N and the coast of Africa, 17N29W, 18N50W, 20N70W. The sea heights range from 11 feet to 19 feet to the north of the line: 31N24W 28N35W 22N49W 22N62W, to the Florida east coast along 27N. An exception is moderate and fresh winds from 10N northward from 28W eastward, and from 10N southward between 30W and 54W. The sea heights in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean range from 4 feet to 8 feet. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, during the period that ended at 09/1200 UTC, according to the Pan American and Precipitation Tables, was 0.13 in Bermuda. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 06N11W, to 05N14W, to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from 05N24W, crossing the Equator along 28W, to 03N39W, to 01N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes from SE Cuba, through the northern sections of Cuba, to 24N81W in the Straits of Florida. A surface trough continues to 27N86W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are possible within 120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. A second stationary front passes through southern Mississippi, to southern Alabama, to the Florida Panhandle, to 28N84W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 29N northward between 84W and 88W. The sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet to 5 feet in the south central sections and in the SW corner. The sea heights have been ranging from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere. The wind speeds have been mostly moderate to some fresh in the Gulf of Mexico. A weakening frontal trough extending from near 29N86W to the Straits of Florida will dissipate by this evening. Moderate east winds are east of the trough, except for fresh east winds in the Straits of Florida. These winds diminish some by early this evening, but remain at fresh speeds in the Straits of Florida through tonight. A cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf region Fri and move over the northern Gulf waters by Fri night, reaching from near Tampa Bay, FL to Galveston, Texas by Sat morning before dissipating late Sat. A third cold front will likely enter the NW Gulf Sun night into Mon. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is approaching the Caribbean Sea from the north, and from the Atlantic Ocean. SW winds are on the southern side of the cold front. NW winds are on the northern side of the cold front. Moderate to fresh winds are from 15N to 20N between 57W and 64W. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the southern half of the central one-third of the area. Moderate NE winds are in the NW corner of the area. Expect gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A cold front has reached the Greater Antilles and vicinity waters today. It is followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. Scattered showers are along the front. A significant swell event is following the front leading to hazardous marine conditions over the Atlantic waters and in the northeast Caribbean passages. The front will reach from the Leeward Islands to Jamaica to the western tip of Cuba on Fri before dissipating Fri night. The swell event also will propagate across the waters E of Leeward Islands late Thu into Fri. Gentle to moderate trade winds will dominate the remainder of the forecast period, except for moderate to fresh winds in the southeastern and south-central Caribbean and fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Mon morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the ongoing GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, and the SWELL EVENT, in the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 31N17W. A surface ridge extends from the 1024 mb high pressure center, to 20N34W. All the wind speed and sea height information is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. A cold front has reached the far southeastern waters. The front is followed by fresh to strong W to NW winds E of 75W. These winds will increase to strong to near gale-force as they shift to the northeast forecast waters by Fri afternoon. A significant swell event in the wake of the front is bringing seas of 12 to 19 ft to the waters N of 12N and E of 65W and also N of 26N between 65W and 73W. Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S. coast by Fri afternoon, bringing strong to near gale force winds to waters east of Florida. This system will move eastward across the area during the weekend, with minimal gale-force winds possible ahead of the front. $$ mt/ja