000 AXNT20 KNHC 071805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Mar 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: A new cold front will be along 31N65W 29N70W 30N81W, in about 12 hours or so. Expect gale-force NW winds, and sea heights that will range from 10 feet to 14 feet, from the front northward to 70W. Expect SW gale-force winds, and sea heights that will range from 12 feet to 16 feet, from the 30N northward between 55W and the new cold front. The gales will continue eastward, from Wednesday night through Thursday, between 55W and 35W. This front will send large NW to N swell spreading through the Atlantic Ocean from tonight through Thursday night. The sea heights are forecast to be higher than 20 feet on Wednesday north of 29N between 48W and 59W. Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Events: NW swell that is higher than 12 feet currently is affecting the waters that are from 26N northward between 30W and 63W, with highest seas near 16 feet near 31N48W. The current swell will be reinforced by a new set of NW to N swell, that will be associated with the new cold front. The new front will move move into the area this evening. Swell in excess of 12 feet will propagate to 20N by Thursday. The swell will impact the Atlantic Ocean to 20N, between the central Atlantic Ocean and the Bahamas. The swell also will impact the NE Caribbean Sea passages and the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean from Thursday into Friday. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details about the gale-force winds and the swell events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 06N11W, to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W, to 02N25W, to the Equator along 30W, to 01S43W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through an Atlantic Ocean 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 25N74W, to a Gulf of Mexico 1018 mb high pressure center that is near 26N86W. The ridge eventually continues to the upper Texas Gulf coast. The wind speeds are gentle, and the sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet. The exception is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, with diurnal moderate E winds and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet. MVFR conditions are in the coastal waters and the coastal plains and inland areas from the west central coast of Florida to the deep south of Texas. Weak high pressure centered over the NE Gulf will dominate the area through Wed. A cold front will enter the NE Gulf on Wed morning, and extend from the lower Florida Keys to near Mobile, Alabama on Thu morning while dissipating. Another weak cold front could reach the northern Gulf Coast Fri or Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The wind speeds generally are moderate, with the sea heights ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet. The exception is for 2 feet to 4 feet in the NW Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9 feet, are in the south central Caribbean Sea, within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia. Moderate trades will prevail for much of the basin today, except for fresh to locally strong in the south central Caribbean. The pressure gradient will weaken today through Wed as an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the NE Caribbean islands. The cold front is forecast to reach the Greater Antilles on Thu. The front will bring large N swell through the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters beginning Thu and lasting into the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about a warning for gale-force winds, and significant swell events, that are impacting the Atlantic Ocean during this week. A cold front passes through 31N33W, to 28N40W, to 24N50W, to 22N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 75 nm on either side of the cold front, and elsewhere from 22N northward from 66W eastward. A surface ridge extends from a 1017 mb high pressure center is near 19N49W, curving to 22N64W, to a 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 25N74W. The ridge continues to a Gulf of Mexico 1018 mb high pressure center that is near 26N86W. The ridge eventually continues to the upper Texas Gulf coast. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 31N13W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 30W eastward. Light to gentle winds are in the area of the surface anticyclonic wind flow. Fresh to strong SW winds are within 90 nm east of the front N of 27N and E of 43W. Fresh to strong W winds are west of the front to 62W and N of 29N. The sea heights range from 12 feet to 16 feet from 26N northward between 30W and 63W. Moderate trade winds are from 10N southward between 35W and 60W. Sea heights are 8 feet or higher from 24N northward between 35W and 65W, and from 11N to 25N between 15W and 35W. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the waters that are from the Greater Antilles northward to 23N. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from 23N55W to 23N65W. The front will become stationary and dissipate by tonight. Large NW to N swell will continue to affect the NE waters through today. A second cold front will enter the area by early this evening, and reach from 30N55W to 26N70W to 28.5N81W by Wed morning. Gale force winds are expected on both sides of the front tonight into Wed N of 28N and E of 70W. Behind the front, NW winds will remain fresh to strong through late week. A significant NW to N swell event will follow the front, with seas of 12 to 20 ft covering most of the waters N of 25N and E of 74W by early Wed afternoon. Swell up to 12 ft will reach as far south as 21N by early Thu. Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast to move off the southeast U.S. coast by Fri night, bringing strong winds to the waters east of Florida. $$ mt/gr