000 AXNT20 KNHC 051850 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Mar 5 2023 CORRECTED DUE TO TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1655 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Long-period northerly swell is currently propagating through the central and eastern waters producing seas of 12-17 ft, N of 26N and between 30W-65W. The swell will gradually abate and shift eastward through early this week. Another northerly swell event will push south of 31N with seas in the 12 to 21 ft range by the middle of the week. Seas greater than 12 ft will reach 21N late in the week, staying generally E of 75W while propagating eastward. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on these swell events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is mainly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic through the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W and continues southwest to 05N13W. The ITCZ extends from 05N13W to 01N30W to 00N49W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Tampa, Florida, to 26.5N88.5W and a surface trough continues southwestward to the southern Bay of Campeche near 18.5N92.5W. No deep convection is associated with these features. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a weak high pressure regime supporting light to moderate winds. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail in the basin, except for 1-3 ft in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 25N92W. The front will weaken tonight, with western portions drifting northward through Mon. Weak high pressure will form across the NE Gulf late Mon then shift NE of the basin Wed night through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge between Puerto Rico and Bermuda continues to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are found off NW Colombia. Seas are 7-10 ft in the south-central Caribbean, while 4-7 ft ft are prevalent in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Light to moderate easterly breezes are present in the NW Caribbean, along with seas of 3-6 ft. For the forecast, a pressure gradient between high pressure southeast of Bermuda and the Colombian diurnal low will support strong trades across the central Caribbean today and fresh SE winds across the the NW Caribbean west of 84W, including the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel. Moderate NE swell will gradually fade across the Tropical Atlantic waters and northeastern Caribbean passages today. Winds will gradually diminish to below normal basin-wide Tue through Thu as an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the NE Caribbean islands. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on an ongoing significant swell event. Additional swell events will continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters next week. A weak cold front extends from 31N66W to Cape Canaveral and only a few showers are noted near this boundary. Fresh to strong westerly winds are found north of 28N and east of the cold front to 45W. Seas in these waters are 8-15 ft, with the highest seas near 31N45W. An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the forecast waters west of 55W, supporting light to moderate anticyclonic winds and moderate seas. Another cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N31W and continues southwestward to 26N39W, where it transitions into a stationary front to 25N50W. No deep convection is seen near these boundary. NW swell behind the fronts support 10-17 ft seas, with the highest seas occurring near 31N35W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging extends from the central Atlantic westward along 25N through the Bahamas. As a cold front moves SE through Mon, fresh to strong SW winds will shift eastward ahead of it. The ridge will weaken and reform NE of the Bahamas late Mon through Tue as the front dissipates along 25N. Large NW swell will impact the NE waters behind the front late Sun through Tue night, then large N to NE swell will move south of 31N and spread across all Atlantic waters through Thu with the next frontal system approaching from the north. Gale conditions are expected by Tue night across the NE portion or the area. Seas will peak to 20 ft near and north of 30N57W on Wed. $$ DELGADO