606 
AXNT20 KNHC 051019
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Long-period N to NE swell is 
currently propagating through the central waters producing seas 
of 12-19N from 26N to 31N between 35W-53W. The swell will 
gradually abate and shift east of 40W by Mon morning. By that 
time, the next swell northerly event will push south of 31N with 
seas in the 12-17 ft range propagating across the waters north of 
28N and east of 60W. By Tue evening, seas of 12-15 ft are expected
north of 28N and east of 60W. These swell events are the result 
of several storm to hurricane-force low pressure systems moving 
eastward across the Atlantic well to the north of the discussion 
area. Looking ahead, expect another significant swell event across
the western and central Atlantic by midweek.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details 
on these swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwest to 09N19W. The 
ITCZ continues from 09N19W to 01S43W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted S of 03N between 10W-47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from 29N83W to 25N92W. No significant 
precipitation is noted with this front at this time. Moderate NE 
breezes continue over the western Gulf behind the boundary. Seas 
of 3 ft prevail in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds 
are elsewhere over the Gulf with 4 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will weaken 
tonight, with western portions drifting northward through Mon. 
Weak high pressure will form across the NE Gulf late Mon, then 
shift NE of the basin Wed night through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure southeast of Bermuda 
and the Colombian diurnal low supports fresh to strong winds in 
the south-central Caribbean where seas are 8 to 10 ft south of 
15N. Fresh winds also continue within the Gulf of Honduras, W of 
85W, where seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are 
noted over the eastern and central Caribbean, where seas are 6 to 
8 ft, including within the Mona Passage. Gentle to moderate trades
are in the Lee of Cuba and NW Caribbean, where seas are 3 to 5 
ft. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
southeast of Bermuda and the Colombian diurnal low will support
strong trades across the central Caribbean through this morning, 
and fresh SE winds across the the NW Caribbean west of 84W, 
including the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel. Moderate NE 
swell will gradually fade across the Tropical Atlantic waters and 
northeastern Caribbean passages through today. Winds will 
gradually diminish to below normal basin-wide Tue through Thu as 
an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the NE Caribbean 
islands. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an
ongoing significant swell event. Additional swell events will 
continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters next week.

A 1019 mb high center analyzed near 25N62W dominates most of the 
Atlantic basin. Its ridge extends westward to across the western 
Atlantic, including the Bahamas and E Florida. A cold front 
entered the western Atlantic stretching from 31N75W to northern 
FL. Low pressure associated with this front has helped to tighten 
the pressure gradient offshore Florida, supporting fresh S to SW 
winds north of 29N between 54W and 70W, where seas are 8-10 ft. 
Moderate to fresh E winds are also noted north of Hispaniola, 
where seas are 5-6 ft. 

To the east, a cold front extends from near 31N33W southwestward 
to 26N48W. Fresh SW winds are ahead of the front to near 27W, 
where seas are 9-12 ft. Fresh NW winds are along the front north 
of 28N. High pressure prevails elsewhere over the central and 
eastern sections of the area. Seas remain 7 to 9 ft over most of 
the basin east of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds will 
prevail N of 29N ahead of a cold front currently across the NE 
Florida coastal waters. As the front moves SE through Mon, fresh 
to strong SW winds will shift eastward ahead of it. The ridge will
weaken and reform NE of the Bahamas late Mon through Tue as the 
front dissipates along 25N. Large NW swell will impact the NE 
waters behind the front late Sun through Tue night, then large N 
to NE swell will move south of 31N and spread across all Atlantic 
waters through Thu with the next frontal system approaching from 
the north. Gale conditions are expected by Tue night across the NE
portion or the area. Seas will peak to 20 ft near and north of 
30N57W on Wed. 

$$
ERA