000
AXNT20 KNHC 050559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 05 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Long-period N to NE swell is 
currently propagating through the central waters producing seas 
of 12-19N from 26N to 31N between 35W-54W. This swell event will 
gradually abate and shift east of 40W by Mon morning. By that 
time, the next swell northerly event will push south of 31N with 
seas in the 12-17 ft range propagating across the waters north 
of 28N and east of 60W. By Tue evening, seas of 12-15 ft are 
expected north of 28N and east of 60W. These swell events are 
the result of several storm to hurricane-force low pressure 
systems moving eastward across the Atlantic Ocean well to the 
north of the discussion area. Looking ahead, expect another 
significant swell event across the western and central Atlantic 
later next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details 
on these swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwest to 07N20W. The 
ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 02N30W and to 00N40W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03S to 02N between 20W and 
35W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front over the Gulf of Mexico has stalled, reaching 
from Cedar Key, FL to the central Guld near 24N92W. Broken 
clouds remain along the boundary, but no significant 
precipitation is noted. Moderate NE breezes continue over the 
western Gulf behind the boundary where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Seas 
have decreased to 3 ft in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to 
moderate winds are elsewhere over the Gulf with 4 to 6 ft seas, 
with the highest seas in the NE Gulf, noted by buoy 
observations. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will weaken 
tonight, with western portions drifting northward through Mon. 
Weak high pressure will form across the NE Gulf late Mon, then 
shift NE of the basin Wed night through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure southeast of Bermuda 
and the Colombian diurnal low supports fresh to strong winds in 
the south-central Caribbean where seas are 8 to 10 ft south of 
15N. Fresh winds also continue within the Gulf of Honduras, W of 
85W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere moderate to fresh 
trades are noted over the eastern and central Caribbean, where 
seas are 6 to 8 ft, including within the Mona Passage. Gentle to 
moderate trades are in the Lee of Cuba and NW Caribbean, where 
seas are 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support strong 
trades across the central Caribbean through Sun morning and 
fresh SE winds across the NW Caribbean west of 82W, including 
the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel. Moderate NE swell will 
gradually fade across the Tropical Atlantic waters and 
northeastern Caribbean passages through Sun. Winds will 
gradually diminish to below normal basin-wide Tue through Thu as 
an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the NE Caribbean 
islands.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on an
ongoing significant swell event. Additional swell events will 
continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters next week.

A 1020 mb high center analyzed near 25N60W dominates most of the 
Atlantic basin. An associated ridge extends westward to across 
the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and SE Florida. A 
cold front entered the western Atlantic stretching from 31N75W 
to northern FL. Low pressure associated with this front has 
helped to tighten the pressure gradient offshore Florida, 
supporting fresh S to SW winds north of 29N between 55W and 75W, 
where seas are 6-9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are 
also noted north of Hispaniola, where seas are 5-7 ft. 

A cold front extends from near 31N36W southwestward to 29N40W 
and to near 27N51W. Fresh SW winds are ahead of the front to 
near 27W, where seas are 9-12 ft. Fresh NW winds are behind the 
front north of 27N. High pressure is present elsewhere over the 
central and eastern sections of the area. Seas remain 7 to 9 ft 
over most of the basin east of 50W. The exception is in the deep 
tropics south of 15N and west of 45W, where locally fresh trades 
are allowing for 8 to 10 ft seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds will 
prevail N of 29N ahead of a cold front currently across the NE 
Florida coastal waters. As the front moves SE through Mon, fresh 
to strong SW winds will shift eastward ahead of it. The ridge 
will weaken and reform NE of the Bahamas late Mon through Tue as 
the front dissipates along 25N. Large NW swell will impact the 
NE waters behind the front late Sun through Tue night. Then a 
large N to NE swell will move south of 31N and spread across all 
Atlantic waters through Thu with the next frontal system 
approaching from the north. Gale conditions are expected by late 
Tue across the NE portion of the area.

$$
Mora