000 AXNT20 KNHC 050005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Mar 05 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Long-period N to NE swell is currently propagating through the central waters producing seas of 12-19N from 26N to 31N between 40W-54W. This seas will shift to east of 55W by this evening. This swell event will gradually abate and shift east of 40W by Mon morning. By that time, the next swell northerly event will push south of 31N with seas in the 12-17 ft range propagating across the waters north of 28N and east of 60W. By Tue evening, seas of 12-15 ft are expected north of 28N and east of 60W. These swell events are the result of several storm to hurricane-force low pressure systems moving eastward across the Atlantic Ocean well to the north of the discussion area. Looking ahead, expect another significant swell event across the western and central Atlantic later next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on these swell events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the border of Senegal and Gambia near 14N16W, then continues south-southwestward to 04N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W, then to below the Equator at 34W and to near 01S45W. Increasing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-34W. Scattered moderate convection is within convection is from the Equator to 02N and between 15W-20W. Scattered moderate is noted well to the south of the coast of Africa from the Equator to 04N and between 03W-15W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from north-central Florida southwestward to 27N87W, where it transitions to a stationary front and continues southwestward to an attendant low near 20N93W. No significant precipitation is noted with this boundary. Mainly moderate NE to E winds are north and northwest of the frontal boundary, except in the west-central and southwestern Gulf where lighter winds of light to gentle and W to NW in direction are noted. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the frontal boundary, with the exception of the south-central waters where fresh SE to S winds are noted. Per latest buoy observations and recent altimeter data passes, seas are in the 4-7 ft range except for higher seas of 6-8 ft over the NE Gulf, the north- central Gulf and over the southeastern Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall and weaken tonight, with western portions drifting northward through Mon. Weak high pressure will form across the NE Gulf late Mon then shift NE of the basin Wed night through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian diurnal low continues to support fresh to strong NE to E trade winds over the central and western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela and within the Gulf of Honduras west of 84W. A recent ASCAT data pass nicely highlighted these winds over the central Caribbean, with a good concentration of 25-30 kt wind vectors from 12 to 14N and between 74W-76W. Another recent ASCAT data pass indicates fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf Honduras. Trade winds elsewhere are in the moderate to fresh range. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the south-central Caribbean, 6-9 ft from 15N to 18N between 68W-80W, south of 15N between 68W-72W and also north of 18N west of 85W and 5-7 ft elsewhere including the Gulf of Honduras, except for slightly lower seas of 4-6 ft north of 18N between 80W-85W. Patches of low-level moisture moving westward with the trade wind flow are noted north of 12N east of 70W and from 12N to 18N between 70W-81W. Isolated showers are possible with the low cloud streamers coming off the Lesser Antilles islands. Scattered to broken low clouds, with possible isolated to scattered showers are confined to the southwestern Caribbean south of 13N and west of 81W to near the Central America coast. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure southeast of Bermuda and the Colombian diurnal low will support strong trades across the central Caribbean through Sun morning, and fresh to strong SE winds across the northwestern Caribbean west of 82W, including the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel. Moderate NE swell will gradually fade across the Tropical Atlantic waters and northeastern Caribbean passages through Sun. Winds will gradually diminish to below normal basin-wide Tue through Thu as an Atlantic cold front sinks southward toward the northeastern Caribbean islands. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on an ongoing significant swell event. Additional swell events will continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters next week. A 1019 mb high center is analyzed near 25N56W. An associated ridge extends westward to across the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and SE Florida. Low pressure just offshore New England has helped to tightened the pressure gradient offshore Florida, supporting fresh S to SW winds west of 68W and north of 28N, where seas are 7-10 ft. The strongest winds are noted north of the Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are also noted north of Hispaniola, where seas are 5-7 ft. A cold front is extends from near 31N40W southwestward to 28N46W and to near 28N54W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the to near 35W, where seas are 9-12 ft. Farther east, a trough attached to a weak cold front north of the area continues to drift eastward and now extends from near 30N22W southwestward to 27N33W and to near 22N40W. No significant winds or precipitation is associated with this trough, however, seas remain elevated at 9-10 ft seas north of about 25N between the trough and 37W. High pressure is present elsewhere over the central and eastern sections of the area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds along with seas of 6 to 8 ft continue to the east of 57W. Latest ASCAT data shows fresh trade winds confined to south of 16N and between 45W and the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 8-10 ft due to a long-period N to NE swell. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds will prevail N of 29N ahead of a cold front across the NE Florida and Georgia coastal waters this evening. As the front moves SE through Mon, fresh to strong SW winds will shift eastward ahead of it. The ridge will weaken and reform NE of the Bahamas late Mon through Tue as the front dissipates along 25N. Large NW swell will impact the NE waters behind the front late Sun through Tue night, then large N to NE swell will move south of 31N and spread across all Atlantic waters through Thu. $$ Aguirre