000
AXNT20 KNHC 040558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Mar 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas have subsided to 10 to 12
ft across the Atlantic forecast waters N of 22N and E of 45W.
Another swell event will enter the forecast waters by Sat 
afternoon with seas building to 12 to 20 ft N of 25N and E of 
55W by Sat evening. This swell event will gradually abate and 
shift E of 40W by Mon morning. At this time, a third swell event
will push south of 31N with seas in the 12 to 16 ft range 
propagating across the waters N of 28N E of 60W. By Tue evening,
seas of 12 to 13 ft are expected N of 28N and E of 60W. These 
swell events are the result of several storm to hurricane force 
low pressure systems moving eastward across the Atlantic Ocean N 
of the forecast area. Looking ahead, expect another significant
swell event across the west and central Atlantic later next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details 
on these swell events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the border of 
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W, then continues 
southwestward to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 
01S30W to 01S40W and to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 
05W and 12W, as well as from 00N to 02N between 16W and 22W. 
Similar convection is at the end of the ITCZ from the coast of 
Brazil to 01N between 43W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from Destin, FL, to the 
central Bay of Campeche, where it meets a low pressure center of 
1007 mb. No significant precipitation is noted with this 
boundary. Gentle to moderate W winds are west of the front, and 
SW-S winds are head of the front, north of 27N. Fresh winds are 
noted in the southern Bay of Campeche surrounding the low. Fresh 
to strong southerly winds are over the Yucatan Channel, reaching 
as far north as 25N. Seas remain elevated over the Gulf, with 8 
to 10 ft sea north of 27N between E Louisianna and the west 
coast of Florida, 6 to 8 ft seas over the SW Gulf, and 5 to 7 ft 
seas elsewhere. Seas have diminished to below 4 ft offshore the 
TX and western Louisianna coast. 

For the forecast, fresh NW winds will continue over the Bay of 
Campeche through the early part of the night. The front will 
stall on Sat. Winds and seas will subside by Sat afternoon. 
Benign winds and seas will then continue into 
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a ridge across the western 
Atlantic and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to 
strong trade winds over the central and western Caribbean, with 
the strongest winds between 68W and 74W, including the Gulf of 
Venezuela and within the Gulf of Honduras west of 83W. Winds are 
near gale force within the Gulf of Venezuela and just offshore 
Colombia. Seas are 8 to 10 ft over the south-central Caribbean 
and 8 to 9 ft in the far NW Caribbean. Seas are generally 5 to 8 
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support 
strong trades across the central Caribbean into Sat night. 
Strong to near-gale SE winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean 
west of 82W and north of 16N, including the Gulf of Honduras and 
Yucatan Channel, into Sat. Moderate long-period N swell will 
impact the northeastern Caribbean passages through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the 
ongoing significant swell event and the systems supporting 
these marine conditions. Additional swell events will continue 
to impact the Atlantic forecast waters next week.

High pressure of 10120 mb centered over the western Atlantic 
near 27N45W extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, 
including the Bahamas and SE Florida. Low pressure over the 
eastern U.S. is tightening the pressure gradient offshore 
Florida, supporting fresh to strong southerly winds west of 74W 
and north of 27N, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. The strongest winds 
are noted north of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are also 
noted north of Hispaniola, where seas are up to 6 ft.  

A cold front is approaching the central Atlantic, with a portion 
of the boundary sinking into our forecast waters between 56W and 
64W. Fresh to strong SW-W winds are ahead of the cold front, 
north of 28N between 41W and 60W, where seas are 9 to 11 ft. 
Farther east, a weak cold front continues to drift northeastward 
and now extends from 31N25W to 25N35W. No significant winds or 
precipitation is associated with this boundary; however, seas 
remain elevated, with 10 to 12 ft seas north of 25N noted in a 
recent altimeter pass. 

Elsewhere, fresh trades were noted south of 15N and west of 35W 
to the Lesser Antilles, allowing for 7 to 9 ft seas. Although 
high pressure is allowing for winds of moderate speeds or less 
elsewhere across the basin, seas above 8 ft remain mainly east 
of 60W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, strong S winds will prevail
offshore Florida and N of the Bahamas through tonight ahead of a
cold front forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast early Sat.
Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds will progress eastward this 
weekend ahead of the front, remaining north of 29N as the surface
ridge settles along 24N.

$$
Mora