122 AXNT20 KNHC 032320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Mar 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas have subside to 10 to 12 ft across the Atlantic forecast waters N of 22N and E of 50W, with the highest over the NE corner N of 30N between 35W and 41W. Another swell event will enter the forecast waters by Sat afternoon with seas building to 12 to 20 ft N of 28N and E of 55W by Sat evening. This swell event will gradually abate and shift E of 40W by Sun evening. At this time, a third swell event will push south of 31N with seas in the 12 to 18 ft range propagating across the waters N of 28N E of 60W. By Tue evening, seas of 12 to 13 ft are expected N of 30N and E of 48W. These swell events are the result of several storm to hurricane force low pressure systems moving eastward across the Atlantic Ocean N of the forecast area. Looking ahead, expect another significant swell event across the west and central Atlantic next week with building seas of 20 to 22 ft. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1800 UTC, a cold front stretches from SE Louisiana to the western Bay of Campeche. Strong to near gale force southerly winds are noted ahead of the front per scatterometer data over the eastern Gulf while gale force winds are now occurring in the Veracruz area. This morning, gusty winds to minimal gale force were reported in Tampico, Mexico. A ship currently located near Veracruz is reporting NW winds of 45 kt. Seas are 8 to 12 ft within the southerly winds, and 8 to 10 ft in the wake of the front, except 9 to 13 ft in the Veracruz area. The front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche late this evening, before stalling on Sat. Gusty winds to gale force will end across the Gulf waters by late this evening. Winds and seas will subside by Sat afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then continues southwestward to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 14W and 20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Pascagoula, MS to the western Bay of Campeche. The front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche late this evening, before stalling on Sat. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the SW Gulf. Please, see the Special Features section above for more information. A rope cloud delineates the leading edge of the frontal boundary while no clouds are observed over the NW Gulf in the wake of the front. A few showers could be possible ahead of the front over the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a ridge across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to locally strong trade winds over the majority of the basin. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over the south-central Caribbean, and 8 to 9 ft in the far NW Caribbean. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft elsewhere. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. The San Juan Doppler radar shows some of these showers moving across the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. For the forecast, little change in the weather pattern is expected across the basin during the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong trades will persist across the central Caribbean through Sat. Strong to near-gale SE winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean west of 82W and north of 16N, including the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel, through tonight. Long-period northerly swell will continue to impact the northeastern Caribbean passages as well as the waters just E of the Lesser Antilles through Sat night, creating hazardous marine conditions. Dangerous breaking waves are expected to reach the coastal waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on the ongoing significant swell event, and the systems supporting these marine conditions. Additional swell events will continue to impact the Atlantic forecast waters next week. High pressure of 1019 mb centered over the central Atlantic near 27N45W extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and SE Florida. Fresh southerly winds are observed along the western periphery of this ridge along the Florida offshore waters. Seas are currently 4-6 ft and will continue to build to 8 to 9 ft N of 28N by tonight. Light and variable winds are noted per scatterometer data along the ridge axis. A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N28W, and continues SW to near 22N51W. Some shower activity could be associated with the frontal boundary, forecast to move eastward across the eastern Atlantic while gradually dissipating during the weekend. High pressure of 1020 mb located W of the Canary Islands near 29N21w dominates the remainder of the eastern Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, strong S winds will prevail offshore Florida and N of the Bahamas through tonight ahead of a cold front forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast early Sat. Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds will progress eastward this weekend ahead of the front, remaining north of 29N as the surface ridge settles along 24N. $$ GR