000 AXNT20 KNHC 021805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Mar 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N38W, 24N50W, reaching 22N70W. The sea heights are ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet from 14N northward between 30W and 60W. The comparatively highest sea heights are reaching 21 feet and 22 feet from 31N to 32N between 42W and 45W. Everything is being generated by a complex low pressure center that is to the north of the discussion area. These conditions will continue through Sunday, while drifting eastward through the central and eastern sections of the Atlantic Ocean. Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning: The surface pressure gradient, that is between high pressure that is to the north of the area, and relatively lower surface pressure that is in Colombia, will support pulsing winds to minimal gale-force tonight off the coast of Colombia. The sea heights will build to the range from 11 feet to 12 feet, with the fastest wind speeds. Fresh to strong trade winds will be in the south central Caribbean Sea through Sunday. These winds will expand northward into the north central basin today. Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast tonight. The front will reach near Apalachicola, FL, to the central Bay of Campeche on Friday evening, before stalling and weakening from Friday night into early Saturday. Near gale-force S winds and rough seas will precede the front in the northern Gulf, from tonight through Friday morning. Wind gusts are expected to reach near gale-force during the same time period. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected in the western Gulf of Mexico, behind the cold front. The exception will be for minimal gale-force winds offshore Tampico and Veracruz in Mexico on Friday. The sea heights are forecast to build to 8 feet to 10 feet offshore Veracruz. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details about these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 05N18W, to the Equator along 26W. The ITCZ continues to 01S30W, 02S34W, and to 02S42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A warning for GALE-FORCE winds is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, read the Special Features section for more details. A surface ridge is along 24N/25N in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect generally moderate to fresh southerly winds throughout the area. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, except for 8 feet to 9 feet in the central sections. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected today, ahead of a cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast tonight. The front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche Fri evening before stalling and weakening later Fri night into early Sat. Near-gale force S winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, will precede the front across the north- central Gulf tonight through Fri morning. Strong NW winds are expected behind the front over the western Gulf, except for minimal gale force offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Winds and seas should subside by Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A warning for GALE-FORCE winds is in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia. Please, read the Special Features section for more details. Fresh to strong trade winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea, in the Gulf of Honduras west of 84W, and in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. An exception is gentle winds from Cuba to 17N between 76W and 81W. The sea heights are ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet in the south central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. An exception is the range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the Gulf of Honduras, and the range of 1 foot to 3 feet in the lee of Cuba, near the Cayman Islands, and also between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian diurnal low is supporting strong trades across the central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Strong to near-gale SE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat morning, spreading across the northwestern Caribbean through the Yucatan Channel tonight through Fri. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean passages through this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the ongoing significant swell event, and the cold front that is supporting these marine conditions. A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N38W, 24N50W, reaching 22N70W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, is within 300 nm to the ESE of the cold front from 25N northward. Expect fresh southerly winds north of 29N between 72W and the coast of Florida. Seas are expected to reach 6 feet in this area. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 23N20W, just to the west of the Canary Islands. The wind speeds for the remainder of the basin are mainly moderate, with moderate seas south of 20N. The sea heights have been ranging from 12 feet to 15 feet from 28N northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet between 15W and 30W. The sea heights have been ranging from 2 feet to 6 feet from 15W eastward. Rough seas generated by long-period northerly swell will persist east of 65W through today. Surface ridging prevails across the area, with moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds. A cold front is forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast Fri night and track eastward. It will bring strong S to SW winds east of Florida Fri through Sat morning. Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds will progress eastward this weekend, remaining north of 29N as an east-west oriented surface ridge settles along 24/25N. $$ mt/ah