000 AXNT20 KNHC 020551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Mar 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front that extends from near 31N47W to 25N65W will continue eastward across the central Atlantic through Fri. Strong to near-gale force winds accompany the front north of 27N between 40W and 55W. Gale force W winds were noted in a recent scatterometer pass north of 29N between the cold front and 51W. Gale force winds will lift north of 31N through Thur morning. Additional pulses of NW swell will follow the front. Please see the paragraph below for details on wave heights. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Satellite altimeter data from throughout the day showed seas over 12 ft, mainly north of 24N and east of 60W. Seas are as high as 19 ft near 31N50W and were generated by a complex low pressure located well to the north of the discussion area. Expect seas above 12 ft to be present north of 25N and between 55W and 43W, and north of 21N, east of 43N through tomorrow. Seas will linger through Fri morning, subsiding slightly through the weekend. Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sat. These winds will expand northward into the north-central basin on Thu. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are expected tonight and Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Seas will build to 11 or 12 ft with the strongest winds. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast Thu night. The front will reach near Apalachicola, FL, to the central Bay of Campeche Fri evening before stalling and weakening later Fri night into early Sat. Near-gale force S winds and rough seas will precede the front across the northern Gulf Thu evening through Fri morning along with seas of 8-12 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected behind the front over the western Gulf, except for minimal gale force offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Seas are forecast to build to 8-11 ft offshore Veracruz. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the Atlantic swell event and on the Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 05N20W, where the latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 00N30W to 01N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between the west coast of Africa and 20W. Similar convection is also noted along the ITCA near the coast of Brazil. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please read the Special Features section for more details. High pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf. The associated anticyclonic wind flow is allowing for generally moderate to fresh southerly winds across the basin. Seas are in the range of 3-5 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 6-8 ft within 150 nm offshore the northern Yucatan peninsula in an area of stronger winds. For the forecast, the above-mentioned high pressure will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through tonight. Moist southerly Flow may favor the development of marine fog across portions of the northern Gulf tonight into early Thu morning. SE to S winds will increase to fresh to strong Thu, ahead of a cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast Thu night. The front will reach from Apalachicola, FL, to the central Bay of Campeche Fri evening before stalling and weakening later Fri night into early Sat. Near-gale force S winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, will precede the front across the northern Gulf Thu evening through Fri morning. Strong NW winds are expected behind the front over the western Gulf, except for minimal gale force offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Winds and seas should subside by Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia. Please read the Special Features section for more details. The latest ASCAT data passes indicate fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras west of 84W, and within the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the Caribbean, except south of Cuba to 17N between 76W and 81W, where gentle winds are noted. Seas are 7-10 ft over the south-central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except 6-8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 1-3 ft in the lee of Cuba, near the Cayman Islands, and also between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian diurnal low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Sat. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are expected tonight and Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. By Thu night, those SE winds will become strong to near-gale force and spread across the northwestern Caribbean through Fri. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean passages through this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in place for the central Atlantic, the ongoing significant swell event, and the cold front supporting these marine conditions. High pressure centered east of Bermuda is allowing for a tightening pressure gradient between lower pressures over the SE U.S. coast, supporting fresh to strong southerly winds north of 29N between 72W and the coast of Florida. Seas will build to 5 ft today in this region. As mentioned above in the special features section, a cold front is supporting hazardous marine conditions. This front is being supported by a rather vigorous mid to upper-level trough. Satellite imagery reveals scattered showers and thunderstorms within 180 nm E of the front north of 27N. Outside of the strong to gale force winds, ASCAT data found fresh N-NE winds behind the front east of 65W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the cold front north of 24N and west of 40W. Farther east, a frontal boundary is beginning to dissipate from 31N30W to 25N41W as a 1023 mb high pressure now dominates the eastern Atl waters, centered just east of the Canary Islands. Winds over the remainder of the basin are mainly moderate, with moderate seas south of 20N. Seas are above 9 ft north of 20N between 30W and 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast Fri night and track eastward. It will bring S to SW winds at strong east of northern Florida and moderate to fresh across northwest Bahamas Fri through Sat morning. Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds will progress eastward this weekend, remaining north of 29N as an east-west oriented surface ridge settles along 24/25N. $$ Mora