539 AXNT20 KNHC 011755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Mar 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front east of Bermuda will progress eastward across the central Atlantic through Thu. Strong to near-gale force westerly winds will accompany the front north of 28N. Some of these winds will reach minimal gale force north of 30N between 40W and 53W late this afternoon through early Thu morning. Additional pulses of NW swell will follow the front. Please see the paragraph below for details on wave heights. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Latest altimeter satellite data indicates wave heights in excess of 12 ft mainly north of 26N and east of 55W, reaching as high as 20 ft near 31N40W. The large waves are related in part to successive groups of long-period NW swell associated with deep low pressure system located well north of the area. Wave heights in excess of 8 ft are reaching the tropical Atlantic, east of 55W. Expect seas in excess of 12 ft to persist north of 26N east of 55W tonight and Thu. Seas will subside slight thereafter, but another round of NW swell can be expect Sat and Sun north of 28N E of 50W. Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sat. These winds will expand northward into the north-central basin on Thu. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are expected tonight and Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Seas will build to 11 or 12 ft with the strongest winds. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: a cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast Thu night. The front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche Fri evening before stalling and weakening later Fri night into early Sat. Near-gale force S winds and rough seas will precede the front across the northern Gulf Thu evening through Fri morning. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected behind the front over the western Gulf, except for minimal gale force offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Fri. Seas are forecast to build to 8 to 11 ft offshore Veracruz. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the Atlantic swell event and the gale force winds. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues SW to near 02N20W. The ITCZ extends from 02N20W to 01N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from the Equator to 02N between 34W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters producing moderate to fresh southerly winds. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft W of 87W and 1 to 3 ft E of 87W. Areas of dense fog area still noted over the Florida Big Bend within 60 nm of the coast. A dense fog advisory is in effect for the waters E of Mexico Beach to Suwanee River until noon EST. Some patches of low level moisture with possible showers are moving through the Yucatan Channel into the SE Gulf under a SE wind flow. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through tonight. Moist southerly flow will continue to favor the development of marine fog across portions of the northern Gulf tonight into early Thu morning. SE to S winds will increase to fresh to strong Thu, ahead of a cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast Thu night. Please, see the Special Features section for more details about the next cold front entering the Gulf. Winds and seas should subside over the Gulf waters by Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please, read the Special Features section for more details. Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong trades over the south central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the central Caribbean and the SE part of the basin, including the offshore waters of Venezuela E of 70W. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are noted over the western Caribbean W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 9 ft over the south-central Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 1-3 ft in the lee of Cuba, near the Cayman Islands and between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are observed on satellite imagery moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers, more concentrated over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sat. These winds will expand northward into the north-central basin on Thu. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are expected tonight and Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. By Thu, these winds will become strong to near-gale force and spread over the northwestern basin. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean and passages through this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about the upcoming gales and ongoing significant swell event. A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast waters near 31N54W then continues westward to 28N60W to beyond 31N75W. Recent scatterometerdata indicate strong to near gale force winds on either side of the front N of 29N while an altimeter pass shows seas of 12 to 15 ft just ahead of the front and N of 28N. A broken band of clouds with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is associated with the front. A second cold front is analyzed over the Atlantic and runs from 31N33W to 26N40W to 23N50W. Gentle to moderate winds are related to the front. An altimeter pass reveals seas of 14 to 23 ft in the wake of the front with the highest seas near 31N43W. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure located W of the Canary Islands near 27N21W. Moderate to fresh trades are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge. Long period NW swell continues to dominate most of the Atlantic waters E of 55W with seas in excess of 12 ft mainly north of 26N between 35W and 55W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas generated by long-period northerly swell will persist east of 63W through Thu. A cold front extending from 31N54W to 29N64W to 30N73W will keep progressing eastward across the Atlantic waters through this afternoon, sustaining strong to near-gale westerly winds north of 28N and east of 63W through today. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast Fri night and track eastward. It will bring S to SW winds at strong to near-gale force east of northern Florida, moderate to fresh across northwest Bahamas along with moderate to rough seas Fri through Sat morning. Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are expected north of 29N this weekend. $$ GR