000 AXNT20 KNHC 011127 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Mar 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front east of Bermuda will progress eastward across the central Atlantic through Thu. Strong to near-gale force westerly winds will accompany the front north of 28N. Some of these winds will reach minimal gale force north of 30N between 40W and 53W late this afternoon through early Thu morning. Please see the paragraph below for details on wave heights. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Recent altimeter satellite data indicates wave heights in excess of 12 ft mainly north of 26N and east of 55W, reaching as high as 20 ft near 31N45W. The large waves are related in part to successive groups of long-period NW swell associated with deep low pressure system well north of the area. Wave heights in excess of 8 ft are reaching through the tropical Atlantic, east of 55W. Shorter- period wind seas will mix with the NW swell north of 30N between 40W and 50W tonight, with combined seas reaching as high 20 ft in that area. Expect seas in excess of 12 ft to persist north of 28N east of 55W to the Canary Islands into Fri. Looking ahead, seas will subside slight thereafter, but another round of NW swell can be expect Sat and Sun north of 28N between 25W and 50W. Caribbean Gale Warning: Tight gradient between a strengthening high pressure near the Bahamas and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia is prolonging strong to near-gale NE to ENE winds at the south-central Caribbean. These winds are going to peak at gale-force north of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on the Atlantic swell and Caribbean gales. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends southwestward across the African coast near the Guinea-Sierra Leone border to 01N20W. An ITCZ then continues from 01N20W across 01S30W to the Brazilian coast just east of Sao Luis. Scattered moderate convection is seen near both features from the Equator to 12N between 10W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A modest surface ridge reaches west-northwestward from the Florida Strait to just south of the Texas-Mexico border. Dense fog is observed at the northwestern Gulf coastal waters near Galveston with visibility down to 1 NM, while patchy fog farther out at the offshore waters is reducing visibility to 3 NM this morning. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present across the northern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of the Yucatan Peninsula and at the Bay of Campeche, due to a thermal surface trough in the vicinity. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through tonight. Expect southerly winds, gentle to moderate for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh over the western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to favor the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf early this morning and tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse until sunrise this morning and tonight near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough. Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by Thu, ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across the Gulf late Thu night and Fri. These winds will reach near-gale force across the Bay of Campeche and central Gulf, and might peak at gale-force offshore from Veracruz, Mexico. This front is anticipated to stall and weaken across the east-central Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche on Sat, which should allow both winds and seas to gradually subside. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on an upcoming gale event. A 1019 mb high near the southeast Bahamas is sustaining a fair trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh ENE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas are found at the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sat. These winds will expand northward into the north-central basin on Thu. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are expected tonight and Thu night off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. By Thu, these winds will become strong to near-gale force and spread over the northwestern basin. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean and passages through this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about the upcoming gales and ongoing significant swell. A cold front curves southwestward from a deep low pressure northeast of Bermuda across 31N52W to 28N65W, then turns west- northwestward to beyond 31N at 75W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near and up to 80 nm southeast of the front north of 28N. Scattered showers are seen near and up to 40 nm north of the rest of the front. At the east-central Atlantic, another cold front extends southwestward from the central Azores across 31N33W to 24N46W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and up to 100 nm northeast of this feature. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Suriname, French Guiana and northeastern Brazil, and nearby Atlantic waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the basin. Other than the winds and swell mentioned in the Special Features section at the beginning, moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft are noted north of 24N between 47W and 72W. To the west, gentle to moderate westerly winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are present from the Bahamas northward between 72W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft exist north of 24N between the northwest African coast and 30W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades with 9 to 11 ft seas dominate from 09N to 24N between the central African coast and 40W, and also to the southwest, from 03N to 12N between 40W and the South American coast. Further northwest, gentle to moderate ENE to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found from 12N to 21N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderately N swell prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas generated by long-period northerly swell will persist east of 63W through Thu. The cold front will keep progressing eastward across the western Atlantic waters through this afternoon, sustaining strong to near-gale westerly winds north of 28N. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast on Fri and track eastward. It will bring southerly winds at strong to near-gale force east of Florida, moderate to fresh across northwest Bahamas along with moderate to rough seas Fri afternoon through Sat morning. Afterward, fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are expected north of 29N this weekend. $$ Forecaster Chan