000 AXNT20 KNHC 281202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Feb 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to exit the east coast of the U.S. later this morning. The southwestern portion of this front will move eastward across the western and central Atlantic through Thu night. Expect westerly strong to near-gale winds north of 29N to shift eastward from off the northeast Florida coast to east of 55W. Some of these winds will reach gale-force between 53W and 40W Wed late afternoon and Wed night. Combined seas will peak between 17 and 20 ft under the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large to very large NW swell persists across the Atlantic waters, mainly north of 12N between 20W and 60W, with 12 to 16 second periods. The swell is related to a series of strong low pressure systems well north of the area that have been moving west to east across the north- central Atlantic, producing up to hurricane force winds. Recent altimeter satellite data indicates the maximum heights south of 31N have subsided to 15-16 ft as the swell decays, but also that the extent of swell in excess of 8 ft has spread as far south as 12N. Shorter-period, wind-driven seas associated with strong to near-gale force winds are mixing with the swell, north of 25N between 35W and 55W. Reinforcing swell is expected to move south of 31N and east of 55W by Wed, associated with another low pressure system well north of the area moving across the central Atlantic. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Caribbean Gale Warning: A 1018 mb high near the southeast Bahamas is going to strengthen and build eastward through Fri. This will tighten further the gradient between itself and lower pressure near northwestern Colombia. Anticipate strong to near-gale NE to ENE winds just north of the Colombia coast through Fri. These winds will peak at gale-force on Wed night and possibly Thu night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends southwestward across the Sierra Leone coast just south of Freetown to 00N20W. No significant convection is seen near the trough. An ITCZ then continues westward from 00N20W through 02S35W to the coast of Brazil just east of Belem. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N to 03N between 22W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A modest surface ridge extends westward from the Florida Straits to near the Texas-Mexico border. Farther south, a surface trough curves northeastward from the central Bay of Campeche to north of the Yucatan Peninsula, no significant weather is seen near this feature. Areas of fog are evident in the nearshore waters across the northern Gulf, with dense fog near Corpus Christi. Moderate with locally fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the south-central Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Wed night. Expect southerly winds, gentle to moderate for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh over the western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to favor the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf during night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough. Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by Thu ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across the Gulf on Fri. These winds could reach near-gale force across the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on an up- coming gale event. A 1018 mb high near the southeast Bahamas continue to support a relatively fair trade-wind pattern for the entire basin. Patchy trade-wind showers are found south of Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Fresh to locally strong ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present at the south-central basin and Gulf of Honduras. Mainly gentle E to ESE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh easterly winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a high near the Bahamas and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sat. These winds are going to expand northward into the north-central basin on Thu. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed. By Thu, these winds will become strong to near- gale force and spread over the northwestern basin. Moderate long- period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean and passages most of this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about the an upcoming gale event and a significant swell event. A cold front reaches southwestward from a complex low west of the western Azores across 31N49W to 28N60W. Patchy showers are occurring near and up to 50 nm north of this feature. Another cold front curves southwestward from near the Azores across 31N36W to 25N50W, then continues westward as a stationary front to 26N68W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 130 nm southeast of the cold front north of 25N. Patchy showers are found up to 80 nm south of the remaining boundary. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms northeast of Suriname-French Guiana coast from 05N to 09N between 43W and 55W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Earlier satellite scatterometer data suggest fresh to strong SW to WNW winds are near the aforementioned frontal boundaries north of 25N between 29W and 55W. Refer to the Special Features section for swell and seas in this area. To the west, gentle W to NW winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are present north of 20N between 55W and 75W/the Bahamas. Off the northeast Florida coast, fresh with locally strong westerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas prevail. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to ESE winds and seas at 10 to 14 ft in large NW swell dominate north of 18N between the African coast and 29W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident from 09N to 18N between the central African coast and 37W. Farther west, gentle to moderate ENE to S to SW winds with 6 to 9 ft seas are noted from 05N to 20N between 37W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong westerly winds behind the cold front near 28N60W will linger north of 29N east of 58W until mid morning, then become gentle to moderate by noon today. Rough seas will persist east of 63W through Thu. Another cold front will move off the east coast of the United States later this morning, causing fresh to strong westerly winds and building seas to the waters off northeast Florida. This boundary will also produce strong to near-gale westerly winds and higher seas north of 28N across the western Atlantic waters Tue through Wed. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to exit the U.S. southeast coast on Fri, bringing another round of increasing winds and seas off Florida and near northwest Bahamas. $$ Forecaster Chan