000 AXNT20 KNHC 280525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Feb 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: Near-gale force winds persist across Atlantic waters north of 30N between 45W and 60W, south of a complex low centered farther north, and north of a cold front reaching from 31N37W to 25N60W. Frequent gusts to gale force are likely ongoing in this area, and a gale warning remains in effect accordingly. The winds will diminish slightly through the overnight hours, with gusts to gale force becoming less frequent. For information on wave heights, please see the paragraph below. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large to very large NW swell persists across the Atlantic waters, mainly north of 12N between 20W and 60W, with 12 to 16 second periods. The swell is related to a series of strong low pressure systems well north of the area that have been moving west to east across the north-central Atlantic, producing up to hurricane force winds. Recent altimeter satellite data indicates the maximum heights south of 31N have subsided to 15-16 ft as the swell decays, but also that the extent of swell in excess of 8 ft has spread as far south as 12N. Shorter-period, wind-driven seas associated with strong to near- gale force winds are mixing with the swell, north of 25N between 35W and 55W. Reinforcing swell is expected to move south of 31N and east of 55W by Wed, associated with another low pressure system well north of the area moving across the central Atlantic. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the Sierra Leone/Guinea border to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 02N25W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N to 03N between 22W and 28W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends across the central Gulf from 1018 mb high pressure centered over the southeast Gulf to near the mouth of the Rio Grande. Farther south, a surface trough extends from the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to the south-central Gulf. Recent buoy and satellite derived data show gentle to moderate winds across the basin. Wave heights are 1 to 3 ft in the eastern Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft in the western Gulf. Areas of fog are evident in the nearshore waters of Texas and southwest Louisiana, with dense fog near Corpus Christi. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Wed night. Expect southerly winds, gentle to moderate for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh over the western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to favor the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf during night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough. Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by Thu ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across the Gulf on Fri. These winds could reach near-gale force across the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... E to SE trade wind flow persists across the basin south of high pressure centered over the southeast Gulf of Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong winds over the south- central Caribbean, with the strongest wind off Colombia. Wave heights are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft in this area. A land- based observation on Roatan in the Gulf of Honduras confirmed strong E winds in that area as well. Wave heights over the Gulf of Honduras may be 4 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft wave heights are evident elsewhere across the basin. A few passing showers are active across the southern Windward Islands, but no significant weather is noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient south of the ridge will sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sat. Pulsing winds to minimal gale-force are possible Wed and Thu nights off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Wed. By Thu, these winds will become strong to near-gale force and spread over the northwestern basin. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean and passages most of this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about the ongoing gale warning and a significant swell event. A cold front reaches from a complex low west of the western Azores to 31N37W to 25N50W to 25N65W. Recent satellite data confirms the strong to near-gale force winds and large swell north of the front described in the Special Features section above. Fresh to strong SW winds are evident within 120 nm east of the front, along with scattered moderate convection. Fresh to strong SE winds are also noted in the satellite data off the northeast Florida coast. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted south of 15N with 6 to 8 ft seas, and gentle breezes with 5 to 7 ft waves elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, Fresh to strong westerly winds will prevail north of 26N east of 55W through tonight. Rough seas will persist east of 65W through Thu. Another cold front will move off the east coast of the United States later this evening, bringing fresh to strong westerly winds and building seas to the waters off northeast Florida late tonight. This boundary will also produce strong to near-gale westerly winds north of 28N across the western Atlantic waters Tue through Wed. $$ Christensen