000 AXNT20 KNHC 271125 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Feb 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 998 mb low pressure centered east of the Bermuda near 33N49W will intensify more as it moves across the north-central Atlantic through today. Winds are reaching gale force on the south side of the low north of 28N between 35W and 52W through this afternoon. Please read the paragraph below for more information about the associated swell. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Recent altimeter satellite data confirmed very large wave heights in Atlantic waters north of 25N between 27W and 58W. This is mostly due to large NW swell with 12 to 16 second periods. Wave heights to 8 ft will reach into the tropical Atlantic to 12N and east of 60W by tonight. Reinforcing NW swell will maintain very large combined seas north of 25N through Wed night north of 25N between 35W and 60W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near Freetown and extends southwestward to 01N20W. An ITCZ then continues westward from 01N20W through 00N30W to just northeast of Belem, Brazil at 00N46W. Scattered showers are noted south of the trough from 01N to 03N between 10W and 15W, and near the ITCZ from 00N to 06N between 27W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge reaches westward from a 1019 mb high at the Great Bahamas Bank to north of Tampico, Mexico. Patchy fog are reported by oil platforms across the northern Gulf offshore waters with visibility down to 3 nm. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present at the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail at the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Wed night. Expect southerly winds, gentle to moderate for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh at the western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to favor the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf during night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough. Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong by Thu ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across the Gulf on Fri. These winds could reach near-gale force across the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1019 mb high over the Great Bahamas Bank is sustaining a fair trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are evident at the south- central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft exist for the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a 1019 mb high and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Winds off the coast of Colombia might pulse to minimal gale-force Wed and Thu nights. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night tonight through Wed. By Thu, these winds will become strong to near-gale force and spread over the northwestern basin. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean and passages most of this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information about the gale warning and significant swell event. A cold front reaches west-southwestward from a deepening 998 mb low pressure near 33N48W through 31N39W to 27N70W, then continues northwestward as a warm front to beyond 31N at 72W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near and east of the front north of 27N between 43W and the front. Patchy showers are found along and up to 80 nm north of the rest of this boundary. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered moderate convection from the Equator to 07N between 44W and the French Guiana/Brazil coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Other than the gale winds and very rough seas mentioned in the Special Features section at the beginning, fresh to strong SW to NW winds with 11 to 15 ft seas are found north of 21N between 37W and 58W. To the west, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft are evident north of 22N between 60W and 75W. Farther west, gentle to moderate W winds with 3 to 6 ft seas exist from the Bahamas northward between 75W and the Georgia-Florida coast. For the northeast Atlantic, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft are seen north of 22N between 23W and 37W. Near the Canary Islands, light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate NW swell dominate north of 22N between the northwest African coast and 23W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, mainly moderate NNE to ENE trades with 5 to 7 ft seas exist from 05N to 22N between the central African coast and 45W. Farther west, gentle ENE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted from 04N to 22N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle easterly and NW winds with 4 to 5 ft seas in light northerly swell prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move across the central Atlantic today. Gale force winds have shifted east of 55W, outside the offshore waters but fresh to strong westerly winds behind the front will linger N of 28N east of 60W through tonight. Very rough seas will persist east of 60W through midweek. Looking ahead, another frontal boundary is going to move off the Georgia/Carolinas coast this evening, bringing fresh to strong westerly winds and rising seas to the waters off northeast Florida by late tonight. This boundary will also cause strong to near- gale westerly winds north of 28N across the western Atlantic waters Tue through Wed. $$ Forecaster Chan