764 AXNT20 KNHC 262258 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Feb 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low pressure centered near 33N61W will intensify more as it moves toward Bermuda through tonight. The wind speeds will reach gale-force from 29N northward between 55W and 60W by this evening, as this system moves eastward and it strengthens. Please, read the paragraph below for more information about its associated swell. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Earlier altimeter data depicted combined sea/wave heights already reaching 21 ft N of 28N between 35W and 46W. These data represent a new set of reinforcing northerly swell, with periods that range from 12 seconds to 16 seconds. These waves are expected to reach 20N between 20W and 54W through the next few days. Another round of a large NW swell will impact the waters that are from 27N northward between 35W and 55W, by Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N23W. The ITCZ continues from 02N23W to 03N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N and E of 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 28N85W in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh easterly winds, and sea heights ranging from 2 to 4 ft prevail over the western half of the basin, while light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail over the eastern Gulf waters. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Thu. Expect gentle to moderate southerly winds for the eastern Gulf, and moderate to occasional fresh southerly winds at the western Gulf. This moist southerly flow will continue to favor the development of marine fog across the northern Gulf during night and early morning hours. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough. Southerly flow will increase and reach fresh to strong speeds by Thu ahead of a cold front forecast to move eastward across the Gulf on Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong ENE winds, and sea heights that range from 7 to 9 ft, are in the south central and SW sections of the area. Moderate to fresh ENE winds, and sea heights that have been ranging from 4 to 7 ft, are in the north central sections. Moderate ENE to E winds, and sea heights that range from 3 to 5 feet, are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure located near the Bahamas and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through midweek. Winds off the coast of Colombia will pulse to minimal gale-force possible Wed and Thu nights. Fresh to occasional strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the northeastern Caribbean and passages through midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for information about the upcoming GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, and the SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT. A cold front extends from 31N29W to 24N44W to 25N56W. The front becomes stationary from that point to a 1014 mb low centered near 27N66W. To the east, a 1020 mb high pressure center is near 22N27W. Strong to near-gale SW winds are from 28N northward between 55W and 70W. Mostly fresh to strong SW winds are from 25N northward between the cold front and 23W. Another area of fresh to strong winds are noted N of 23N between 22W-46W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail S of 20N. Seas of 12 to 20 ft are depicted in altimeter data N of 24N between 31W-57W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail elsewhere N of 23N between 21W-67W. Seas are ranging between 3 to 7 ft elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move across the N waters reaching from 31N58W to 29N65 by this evening. At this time, minimal gale force winds are expected ahead of the front N of 30N between 53W and 57W. Gales will shift E of the area by tonight. Rough to very rough seas will follow the front affecting mainly the eastern waters through midweek. Looking ahead, another frontal boundary is going to move off the Georgia/Carolinas coast on Mon, bringing fresh to strong westerly winds and rising seas to the waters E of northeast Florida by Mon night. $$ ERA