935 AXNT20 KNHC 251746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Feb 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: A tight surface pressure exists between a NW Bahamas 1026 mb high pressure center, and the comparatively lower surface pressures that are in northern Colombia. Expect fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea today, increasing to near gale to gale-force tonight. The sea heights will peak in the range from 10 feet to 12 feet in the areas of the comparatively fastest wind speeds. CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: A low pressure center and frontal boundary are forecast to move eastward, to be near Bermuda on Sunday. This weather system will bring fresh to strong westerly winds to the areas that are from 29N northward between 60W and 69W. This feature will move more to the east and it will strengthen. The wind speeds will reach near-gale to gale-force from 29N northward between 51W and 59W on Sunday night. The sea heights are expected to peak from 13 feet to 15 feet in the areas of the comparatively fastest wind speeds. CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: The wave heights currently range from 8 feet to 10 feet from 25N northward between 30W and 60W, with a weakening cold front. A second cold front will move through the north central Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. Expect reinforcing large NW swell, from 10 feet to 20 feet with periods ranging from 12 seconds to 15 seconds, into the waters that are from 20N northward between 25W and 65W, from Saturday through Sunday. The swell will be subsiding. The swell still will be higher than 8 feet, into the tropical Atlantic Ocean by late Monday, mainly from 55W eastward. Another round of large NW swell will impact the Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward between 35W and 55W by the middle of the next week. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecast, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details about each event. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W, to the Equator along 33W, to the Equator along 46W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Expect IFR to MVFR conditions, with isolated areas of LIFR, in the coastal plains and the coastal waters, and in inland areas, from SE Texas to just to the NW of the metropolitan of Tampa in Florida. Expect VFR conditions elsewhere for Florida. Dense fog advisories have been issued in those areas also. A stationary front passes through central Louisiana, to the coastal plains of Texas, through south Texas into northern sections of Mexico, curving northwestward beyond west Texas. A surface trough covers the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, beyond the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A second and NE-to-SW oriented surface trough extends from the Deep South of Texas to 18N102W in Mexico. An inland Florida 1026 mb high pressure center is just off the NW side of Lake Okeechobee. Rainshowers are possible throughout the area. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the SW two-thirds of the area, and in the Straits of Florida. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet elsewhere. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds have been in the SE corner, and in the SW corner. Light to gentle winds have been elsewhere. Patchy marine fog in the offshore waters of the northern Gulf should dissipate gradually by late morning. A diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula will propagate westward over the Bay of Campeche tonight and Sun night. This will create fresh to locally strong easterly winds north and northwest of the northern Yucatan coast, and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. As the 1026 mb high currently near the Florida Big Bend area shifts eastward and strengthens, it will allow fresh southerly flow to form across the northwestern and central Gulf Sun evening through Mon, then become gentle to moderate by Mon night. These winds might increase again and reach fresh to strong near midweek next week ahead of a cold front approaching the Texas coast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the ongoing GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, offshore Colombia. A south Florida 1026 mb high pressure continues to support a trade wind regime in the entire basin. Rainshowers are possible in clusters of scattered to broken low level clouds that are spread throughout the entire area. Strong to near-gale force NE to ENE winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, are in the south central sections. Fresh to strong ENE winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are in the north central sections. Moderate ENE winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the eastern one-third of the region. Moderate to fresh ENE winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the remainder of the area. A 1026 mb high south Florida will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through Sunday morning. These winds should decrease gradually in both speed and coverage starting on Sunday afternoon. Winds off the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale-force this evening through Sun morning. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun afternoon. Strong to near gale force E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Mon and Tue nights. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the NE Caribbean passages by Sun evening, and the eastern Caribbean by Mon morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the upcoming gale-force winds and the significant swell event. A strong cold front curves westward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N54W to 29N67W, to a 1023 mb low pressure center that is near 32N78W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 25N northward from 35W westward. A cold front passes through 31N23W to 30N25W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 30N25W to 25N38W. A surface trough continues from 25N38W to 24N47W and 20N54W. A surface trough is within 120 nm to the SE of the frontal boundary from 40W eastward. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward from 40W eastward. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 24N28W. A surface trough is along 43W/45W from 10N to 20N. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N to 20N between 50W and 60W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are from 28N northward between 40W and 73W. Moderate winds are to the north of the line that runs from 20N40W beyond 31N12W. Moderate to fresh winds are to the south of the line 26N73W 26N67W 22N55W 17N47W 19N34W 26N15W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet to the north of the line 29N70W 28N54W 19N41W 23N33W 25N29W 31N17W. The sea heights are reaching 12 feet, from 25N northward between 30W and 50W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet elsewhere. A surface ridge along 27N will maintain fresh to locally strong trades north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through late tonight. A strong cold front is sinking south of 31N this morning, and will be located along 25N by this evening. It should then push eastward into the central Atlantic with its tail remaining along 25N E of 65W while weakening. Strong to minimal gale force northerly winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front. Looking ahead, a frontal low pressure will move eastward to near Bermuda on Sun, and bring fresh to strong westerly winds north of 28N east of 70W. These winds will become near gale-force over the NE waters by Sunday evening building rough seas. $$ mt/gr