000 AXNT20 KNHC 251157 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Feb 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight gradient exists between a 1026 mb high near the northwest Bahamas and lower surface pressures over northern Colombia. Expect fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean today, increasing to near- gale to gale-force tonight. Seas will peak in the range of 10 to 12 feet under the strongest winds. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal low pressure system is forecast to track eastward, locating near Bermuda on Sun. It will bring fresh to strong westerly winds north of 29N between 60W and 69W. As this system moves farther east and strengthens, winds will reach near-gale to gale force north of 29N between 51W and 59W on Sun night. Seas are expected to peak between 13 and 15 ft in the strongest winds. Central Atlantic Significant Swell event: Wave heights currently range from 8 to 10 ft north of 25N between 30W and 60W, following a weakening cold front. Another cold front will move across the north central Atlantic over the next several days. This will bring reinforcing large NW swell of 10 to 20 ft with 12 to 15 second periods into the waters north of 20N between 25W and 65W Sat through Sun. Although subsiding, swell in excess of 8 ft will reach into the tropical Atlantic by late Mon, mainly east of 55W. Looking ahead, another round of large NW swell will impact the waters north of 28N between 35W and 55W by mid week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near Conakry, then extends southwestward to 05N20W. An ITCZ continues from 05N20W through 02N35W to the coast of Brazil north of Macapa. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are present near the trough and part of the ITCZ from 00N to 05N between 10W and 27W. Scattered moderate convection exist up to 180 nm north of the rest of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Dense fog advisories are again in effect for the coastal waters from north Texas to the Florida Panhandle. Elsewhere, offshore platforms indicate 2 to 4 ft visibility in fog and haze over the northern Gulf. A modest surface ridge extends westward from a 1027 mb high over the northeastern Gulf to near the Texas-Mexico border. An diurnal surface trough is over the southwestern Gulf with no significant weather. Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft are noted at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh easterly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist at the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the fog should gradually dissipate by late morning. More diurnal troughs developing over the Yucatan Peninsula will propagate westward over the Bay of Campeche tonight and Sun night. This will create fresh to locally strong easterly winds north and northwest of the northern Yucatan coast, and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. As the high shifts eastward and strengthens, it will allow fresh southerly flow to form across the northwestern and central Gulf Sun evening through Mon, then become gentle to moderate by Mon night. These winds might increase again and reach fresh to strong near midweek next week ahead of a cold front approaching the Texas coast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about the ongoing Gale Warning. An 1026 mb high near the northwest Bahamas continues to support a trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Patchy trade-wind showers are noted across the eastern basin, including waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are over the south-central basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are evident for the north-central basin. Moderate ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen at the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the high will maintain fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean through Sun morning. These winds should gradually decrease in both speed and coverage starting Sun afternoon. Winds off the coast of Colombia will pulse to gale- force until later this morning, and Sat evening through Sun morning. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun afternoon. Strong to near gale E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras until sunrise this morning, and Mon and Tue nights. Moderate long- period N swell will impact the NE Caribbean passages by Sun evening, and the eastern Caribbean by Mon morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information about the upcoming gale winds and significant swell. A strong cold front curves westward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N48W to 27N65W to 31N75W. Scattered showers are occurring near this feature north of 27N between 50W and 72W. Another weaker cold front stretches southwestward from southeast of the Azores across 31N23W to 29N28W, then continues as a stationary front to 25N39W which becomes a surface trough to 24N47W. Patchy showers are found near and up to 40 nm northwest of this frontal boundary, no significant weather is associated with the trough. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Other than the significant northerly swell and combined seas mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong NW to N winds are evident in the same general area. To the west, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present north of 28N between 65W and 75W. Farther west, light to gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft seas exist from the Bahamas northward between 75W and the Georgia- Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate W to N winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail north of 22N between the African coast and 25W. To the south, gentle to moderate NNE to ENE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are seen from 05N to 20N/22N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge near and east of the northwest Bahamas along 27N will maintain fresh to locally strong trades north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through late tonight. A strong cold front will be located from 31N44W to 27N58W to 27N73W near noon today. It should then push eastward into the central Atlantic with its tail end reaching from 25N55W to 25N65W while weakening. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale northerly winds related to this front have reached 28N and east of 74W, and should extend farther south to near 26N east of 65W by noon. Looking ahead, a frontal low pressure will move eastward to near Bermuda on Sun, and bring fresh to strong westerly winds north of 28N east of 69W. These winds will become near-gale to gale force by Sun evening. Large northerly swell behind both systems will propagate southward east of 65W today through Mon. $$ Forecaster Chan