000 AXNT20 KNHC 242346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Feb 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight gradient exists between a 1026 mb NW Bahamas high pressure center and lower surface pressures over northern Colombia. Expect fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean during the daytime hours, and near-gale to gale-force trade winds at nighttime hours, through Saturday night. The sea heights will peak in the range from 10 to 12 feet, with the fastest wind speeds. Central Atlantic Significant Swell event: The sea heights currently range from 8 to 12 ft from 25N northward between 30W and 58W. THis area is in the vicinity of a cold front. Sea heights are forecast to reach 12 feet and greater from 22N northward between 30W and 63W, from Saturday through early Mon as another front and low pressure system approaches the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N26W. A pair of troughs are analyzed W of the ITCZ along 32W and 43W. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of 05N between 10W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A modest surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail at the central and Bay of Campeche, and north of the coast of the Yucatan. Seas in these areas range from 4 to 6 ft. Moderate SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident elsewhere. For the forecast, patchy dense marine fog is possible within 20 nm of the U.S. northern Gulf Coast through Sat morning. Surface high pressure will continue to be centered over Florida and the NW Bahamas during the next few days. A diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons will propagate westward over the Bay of Campeche each night through Sun night. This pattern will lead to gentle to moderate SE winds across the northern and NE Gulf, while moderate to fresh SE winds will continue for the southern and SW Gulf, with locally strong winds during the late afternoon and evening off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A frontal boundary across the Gulf States is likely to cause fresh southerly winds for the NW Gulf Sun night into early Mon before becoming gentle to moderate on Tue. Return flow is forecast to increase across the basin during the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the Special Features section, for information about the ongoing Gale Warning. An 1026 mb high near the northwest Bahamas continues to support a NE to ESE trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Patchy trade-wind showers are seen south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong to near-gale NE to ENE winds with 8 to 10 ft seas are present at the south- central basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found over the north-central basin, including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong E to ESE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are occurring at the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly moderate ENE to ESE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast...the surface high near the northwest Bahamas will help maintain fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean through Sat night. These winds should gradually decrease in both speed and coverage starting Sun. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia during the evening and early morning hours through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Strong to near gale E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue through Sun morning. Moderate long-period N swell will impact the NE Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters by Sun night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will return to the Gulf of Honduras at night beginning Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for information about the upcoming Central Atlantic Significant Swell event. To the west, light to gentle winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are present near a 1026 mb high, centered near 28N77W. A central Atlantic cold front extends from 31N28W to 26N42W, then a surface trough continues from that point to 21N64W. Farther south, another surface trough is analyzed from 20N42W to 07N45W. No significant convection is observed at this time with any of these features. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist north of 20N between the northwest African coast and 35W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate with locally fresh NE trades and seas at 6 to 7 ft are seen from 08N to 20N between the central African coast and 35W. Gentle to moderate NE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted from 04N to 24N/25N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate northerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge along 27N will maintain fresh to locally strong trades north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through Sun morning. A strong cold front will move south of 31N tonight, extend from near 30N55W to 28N65W to 31N78W Sat morning, then begin weakening Sat night while extending from 25.5N55W to 26N67W to 29N73W. Strong NW to N winds will follow behind the front late tonight through Sat, mainly east of 75W and north of 26N. Large N swell will propagate southward east of 65W Sat through Mon. Looking ahead, a low pressure system should be located near Bermuda on Sun, likely extending a cold front with strong to near gale force winds into the TAFB waters well to the NE of the Bahamas on Sun. This system should then move E between 28N and 31N through Mon. Gale force winds are possible Sun night N of 29N and E of 57W. NE swell producing large seas is expected behind this front, mainly affecting waters N of 27N and E of 65W through the middle of next week. $$ ERA