000 AXNT20 KNHC 232358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Feb 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and Bermuda combined with the Colombian low will help maintain fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia during the evening and early morning hours through Sat night. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trades is expected to diminish beginning late Sat night as the high pressure located N of area weakens. Seas will peak near 14 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to the equator at 33W, then to 01N50W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 05S to 07N between 21W and 51W. Widely scattered showers are from 01N to 06N between 09W and 17W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high pressure system positioned SE of Bermuda near 30N61W has a ridge that extends westward into the Gulf of Mexico to about 94W. Fresh to locally strong return flow dominates most of the Gulf waters W of 86W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh E winds are in the Straits of Florida with seas to 5 ft. Dense fog advisories continue in effect along the northern gulf coast from S Texas all the way to the Florida Big Bend. The return moist southerly flow across the Gulf of Mexico will continue to favor the development of fog during the overnight and morning hours along the northern Gulf states. Mariners should take precaution navigating these waters as visibility may decrease below 1 nm. Also, areas of smoke and haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are confined to the the far southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula during the day will induce fresh to strong E to SE winds over the SW Gulf nightly through Sun night. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off of the Texas and Louisiana coast on Mon. Fresh SW winds are expected ahead of the front with only moderate or weaker winds behind the front on Mon and Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information on the ongoing Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are prevalent across most of the Caribbean Sea waters, except in the far NW basin where moderate E to SE winds dominate. The strongest winds are found in the south-central Caribbean, S of Hispaniola, the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to near gale force winds and seas to 8 ft are ongoing. Seas in the E Caribbean are 4 to 7 ft and 8 to 10 ft in the central and SW basin. For the forecast, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean for the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia during evening and early morning hours through Sat night. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trades is expected to diminish beginning Sun as the high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba through Sun night. Strong to near gale E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue the next several days. Looking ahead, large long-period N swell may begin impacting the tropical N Atlantic zones starting Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... For the forecast W of 55W, a high pressure ridge between the Bahamas and Bermuda will help maintain fresh to strong trades north of Hispaniola and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through Sat night. A shearline moving southeastward across the NE forecast waters will dissipate by Fri morning. A stronger cold front will move across the N forecast waters Fri night, extend from near 31N55W to 28N65W to 31N78W Sat morning, and weaken as it reaches from near 24N55W to 24N65W Sun morning. Strong NW to N winds are likely on Sat across the NE waters behind the front, with large N swell propagating southward east of 65W though Mon night. Looking ahead, another cold front should arrive over the NE waters on Sun, causing strong breeze to near gale conditions on both sides of the front north of 27N through Mon night. NE swell producing large seas is expected behind this front. $$ Ramos